President Trump’s second week saw new nominees confirmed and others grilled even by members of his own party. Trump also made good on his campaign promises to impose tariffs on allies and adversaries alike. Top prediction markets like PredictIt and Kalshi have been tracking some of the week’s major events.
Here are seven prediction markets that summed up Trump’s second week as president.
How many senators confirmed Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary?
Market Settlement: 67 to 68 senators
Trade Volume: ~$19,000
Analysis: The Senate confirmed Bessent 68-29 on Monday to be Trump’s Secretary of the Treasury. Bessent plans to support Trump’s tax cuts and deregulatory agenda. Bessent also is expected to support crypto deregulation, giving crypto companies more opportunities to launch regulated products, including prediction markets.
How many senators confirmed Doug Burgum for Secretary of the Interior?
Market Settlement: 79 to 81 senators
Trade Volume: ~$24,000
Analysis: In a 79-18 vote, the Senate confirmed Burgum as Trump’s Secretary of the Interior on Thursday evening. Burgum will oversee Trump’s policy of increasing American oil production. Since he oversees federal land leases, he’ll be able to give oil and gas companies more extraction sites.
How many senators will vote to confirm RFK for HHS Secretary by April 30?
Market Settlement: Open – 24% chance RFK gets 49 or fewer confirmation votes
Trade Volume: ~370,000 contracts
Analysis: On Thursday morning, the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions held a public hearing to question Robert Kennedy Jr. It was Kennedy’s second Senate hearing that week, but potentially his more concerning one for swing senators.
Members of both parties challenged Kennedy on his vaccine skepticism, including Republican Bill Cassidy. If confirmed, Kennedy would oversee the FDA, which approves vaccines for medical use in the United States. He could also interfere with federal research programs that include vaccines.
How many senators will vote to confirm Tulsi Gabbard for DNI by April 30?
Market Settlement: Open – 45% chance Gabbard gets 49 or fewer votes
Trade Volume: ~158,000 contracts
Analysis: Gabbard faced the Senate Intelligence Committee on Thursday morning and experienced one of the most intense and bipartisan grillings of Trump’s nominees. Senators repeatedly challenged her about various issues like her visit to Syria to meet with then-dictator Bashar al-Assad and her blame of NATO for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Gabbard also refused to explicitly admit that Edward Snowden was a traitor, a sticking point for the committee. Snowden revealed surveillance programs of American citizens, but he also compromised intelligence agents in other countries. He fled the United States and still lives in Russia. Gabbard previously supported a pardon for Snowden, so senators pressed her on how she would handle whistleblowers who chose not to use the legal reporting process.
After her hearing, Gabbard’s chances of overseeing U.S. intelligence agencies remain precarious.
How many senators will vote to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director by April 30?
Market Settlement: Open – 81% chance Patel gets 51 to 53 confirmation votes
Trade Volume: ~256,000 contracts
Analysis: Patel also had his committee hearing Thursday morning, and he had an easier time than Kennedy and Gabbard. Democrats challenged Patel’s previous support for January 6 rioters and retaliation against Trump’s enemies. In contrast, Republicans steered Patel towards past investigations they believed merited attention from the FBI Director, like cases against Trump after the 2020 election.
The price spike to 98 cents on Jan. 30 likely came from a buyer purchasing many contracts shortly before midnight. No confirmation vote has been held yet.
Will Trump impose tariffs on any country before March?
Market Settlement: Yes
Trade Volume: ~$1.1 million
Analysis: On Thursday night, reports surfaced that Trump was considering implementing tariffs over the weekend. He did just that on Saturday afternoon.
Trump announced tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China. He placed a 25% tariff on all Canadian and Mexican goods except for oil, on which he imposed a 10% tariff. Trump also imposed a 10% tariff on all goods from China. Mexico reached a deal to delay its tariffs one month, but the others go into effect on Tuesday.
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in the first 100 days of the presidency?
Market Settlement: Open – Eric Adams has a 13% chance of a pardon
Trade Volume: ~$3.2 million in first 100 days pardon market
Analysis: Trump issued sweeping pardons for January 6 rioters on his first day in office. He also pardoned Ross Ulbricht for the criminal activity he facilitated on his website for illegal goods, Silk Road.
Adams faces charges from a corruption scandal and visited Trump hoping for a pardon. The odds of an Adams pardon in Trump’s first 100 days peaked at 47% on Inauguration Day, but have fallen to about 12% since.