Trump’s fourth week resolved some prediction markets and riled others. While much focus remained on Trump’s remaining Cabinet nominees, government shutdown odds reached new heights, and Trump signaled how he would approach negotiations to end the war in Ukraine.
Here are the six prediction markets from PredictIt, Kalshi, and Polymarket that sum up a busy and consequential week four.
How many senators voted to confirm Tulsi Gabbard?
Market Settlement: 52 senators voted to confirm Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence
Analysis: After months of controversy, Gabbard was finally confirmed. She will oversee the United States’ intelligence agencies and prepare the president’s daily brief, a document outlining core national security issues from around the world. One Republican, Mitch McConnell, broke ranks to vote against her, citing lapses of judgment in her 2017 meeting with Syria’s dictator and undue skepticism of the American intelligence community.
How many senators voted to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr.?
Market Settlement: 52 senators voted to confirm Robert Kennedy Jr. as Secretary of Health and Human Services
Analysis: Once again, McConnell was the only Republican senator to vote against Kennedy’s nomination. Kennedy’s history of promoting conspiracies about vaccines hit home for McConnell, a polio survivor. But it was also one of the greatest obstacles to his confirmation.
Kennedy, Gabbard, and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have been among Trump’s most controversial nominees. Republicans came together in the Senate to confirm all of them, showing how unwilling Senate Republicans are willing to push back against Trump – at least in his early weeks.
How many senators will vote to confirm Kash Patel?
Market Price: PredictIt shows a 79% chance of 52 senators voting to confirm Kash Patel as FBI Director.
Settlement Terms: The number of confirmation votes for Kash Patel will decide the contracts that pay out.
Analysis: Patel is another controversial Trump nominee, but he has benefitted from the more difficult nominees who preceded him. The odds of 52 senators confirming Patel rose from 50% to 80% in the two days following Kennedy’s and Gabbard’s confirmations.
McConnell’s consistent defections – and his health concerns – indicate that he may not run for another term in 2026. Patel’s confirmation seems a foregone conclusion, so the markets say more about the senators casting confirmation votes than the Cabinet nominees themselves.
How many senators will vote to confirm Lori Chavez-DeRemer for Labor Secretary?
Market Price: Kalshi traders give Lori Chavez-DeRemer a 59% chance of receiving less than 70 confirmation votes.
Settlement Terms: The market will settle based on the number of senators who vote to confirm Chavez-DeRemer as Secretary of Labor.
Analysis: Chavez-DeRemer was initially one of Trump’s most bipartisan nominees. She’s a pro-union Republican from Oregon, appealing to pro-labor Democrats and pro-union voices among the MAGA base. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer announced on Monday that he would withhold support for Chavez-DeRemer over DOGE’s ongoing cuts to federal government programs.
Over the previous week, the odds of Chavez-DeRemer receiving 71 to 73 confirmation votes rose from 8% to 21%. She’s still expected to coast to confirmation, but over the past week, Kalshi traders perceive an increasing chance of reduced protest votes.
Will there be a government shutdown this year?
Market Price: Kalshi traders forecast a 58% chance of a government shutdown in 2025.
Settlement Terms: The market settles to Yes if a government shutdown occurs before 10 a.m. ET on Jan. 1, 2026.
Analysis: Since the end of January, the odds of a government shutdown have risen from about 25% to about 60%. The escalation comes from Democrats with few options to protest Elon Musk’s and Trump’s cuts to federal programs. The December 2024 government shutdown scare only funded the government until March 14, 2025. It took Speaker Mike Johnson three attempts to pass the short-term funding bill in December, and so far, negotiations to fund the government past March 14 have failed.
Will Trump end the war in Ukraine in 90 days?
Market Price: Polymarket traders give Trump a 36% chance of ending the war in Ukraine in his first 90 days in office. Those odds are up from 18% at the end of January.
Market Settlement: The market will settle to Yes if “an armistice, ceasefire, or negotiated settlement is announced by both Ukraine and Russia” by April 19, 2025.
Analysis: On Tuesday, Trump announced his first phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. They covered how they could approach negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. European allies were alarmed that Trump had unilaterally announced negotiations with Putin rather than include the EU and Ukraine, which was invaded by Russia in 2022.
Allies of the United States are concerned Trump will end the war on terms favorable to an early foreign policy victory for him rather than the long-term security of Ukraine and Europe. Polymarket traders certainly think Trump is closer to ending the war in 90 days than he was three weeks ago.
