President Trump finished his first week with crucial decisions that settled top prediction markets. Several of the markets responded to Trump’s executive orders, but the Senate also began confirming his Cabinet nominees.
Here are five political prediction markets that sum up Trump’s first week back in office.
Three Republicans vote 'No' during Hegseth confirmation
Resolution:
- All Democrats – No
- Lisa Murkowski – No
- Susan Collins – No
- Mitch McConnell – No
- All Other Republicans – Yes
Trade Volume: $2.4 Million
Analysis: Concern about Pete Hegseth’s lack of relevant experience for running the Pentagon was bipartisan. Democrats were unanimously opposed to the former Fox News host’s nomination, and Republicans were split in the weeks after Hegseth’s surprise nomination.
In the Jan. 24 Senate vote, Republicans fell in line. Every Republican except three voted to confirm Hegseth. Three senators – Murkowski, Collins, and McConnell – voted against him. Vance had to cast the tie-breaking vote to confirm Hegseth.
Collins and Murkowski weren’t surprises, but McConnell was. Kalshi traders gave him about a 75% chance of voting in favor of Hegseth’s confirmation. However, McConnell is a long-time defense hawk who wants powerful responses against foreign threats. Since he’s no longer Senate Majority Leader and Trump will still get his nominee confirmed, he could vote his conscience without compromising Trump’s political goals.
Senate majority backs Noem
Resolution: 59 or 60 votes
Trade Volume: 56,000 active shares
Analysis: Kristi Noem is one of Trump’s most loyal partisans, so PredictIt traders initially low-balled the number of senators who would vote to confirm her. However, the Senate voted on Saturday to confirm her as Trump’s Secretary of Homeland Security. Seven Democrats crossed the aisle to confirm her in a 59-34 vote. Another seven senators did not cast a vote in Noem’s confirmation.
Noem was South Dakota’s governor and served as a congresswoman. Her priorities include securing the southern border and addressing “homegrown terrorism,” which gained a new urgency for her after the New Orleans attack. While she takes more conservative positions than many Democrats are comfortable with, she had enough legislative experience to receive a bipartisan confirmation vote.
Trump saves TikTok on day one
Resolution: Yes
Trade Volume: $139,000
Analysis: In August 2020, Trump signed an executive order prohibiting transactions between Americans and TikTok. Concerns about TikTok wasn’t limited to Trump. Congressional Republicans and Democrats worried about data privacy and the Chinese government’s ability to influence or control TikTok’s recommendation algorithm. President Biden signed a bipartisan bill requiring TikTok’s sale to an American company or a ban on its continued operation in the United States.
TikTok fought the ban until the sale deadline on Jan. 19, 2025. It went dark for about 14 hours until it received assurances from Donald Trump that he would delay the bill’s implementation. Trump signed an executive order giving TikTok another 75 days to be sold or face its ban. Since Trump’s order brought TikTok back online, prediction markets resolved to “yes.”
Trump plans release of JFK assassination files
Resolution: Current ‘Yes’ price – 98 cents
Trade Volume: $186,000
Analysis: On Thursday, Trump signed an executive order releasing classified files regarding the JFK, RFK, and MLK assassinations. The order is a phased plan instructing the attorney general to present and execute a plan to release new documents. While the files haven’t been released yet, they’re expected before the end of year.
The JFK files in particular are a perceived victory for people who believe traditional institutions only lie to them. Anti-establishment beliefs expanded interest in the JFK files beyond conspiracy theorists and history buffs. Over five million documents related to the JFK assassination have already been released, so whether the JFK files live up to expectations remains to be seen.
Pardons for J6ers and Ross Ulbricht
Resolution:
- Any J6 Protestor – Yes
- Enrique Tarrio – Yes
- Ross Ulbricht – Yes
Trade Volume: $2.7 million
Analysis: Hours after he was inaugurated, Trump pardoned all of the January 6 rioters, including the leader of the Proud Boys militia, Enrique Tarrio. The next day, Trump pardoned Ross Ulbricht, who was serving a life sentence for founding and operating Silk Road. Silk Road was a site on the Tor browser, which allowed customers to make anonymous and illegal purchases with cryptocurrencies.
