On March 4, President Trump will speak to a joint session of Congress. It’ll be the first of four annual opportunities to summarize his governance and vision for the country. While it’s not an official State of the Union, it functions the same as the speeches held at the beginning of each year of the presidency.
Prediction market traders can bet on what words or phrases Trump will say during his speech. Many traders have already bought contracts. More than $3.5 million has already been traded in Kalshi’s mention market for the event, as of Thursday afternoon.
To help traders decide where to place their bets, Prediction News created a word bubble of Trump’s most and least common words from three key speeches:
He delivered his Inaugural Address shortly after being sworn in on Jan. 20. Three days later, Trump addressed the World Economic Forum over teleconference. We counted words from his opening remarks before taking questions. Finally, his Feb. 22 CPAC speech was a 75-minute speech that behaved more like a rally than a structured address. It’s a window into topics that are more important to him than the targeted remarks of his first two major speeches.
Most likely State of the Union words
Kalshi’s State of the Union market gives Trump the highest odds of saying these words and phrases:
- Illegal Immigrant/Immigration – 92%
- Mexico – 88%
- America First – 86%
- Israel – 86%
- DOGE/Department of Government Efficiency – 84%
- America 15+ Times – 83%
Trump said “America” 52 times in his three major speeches, almost double the next most frequent word, “border.” In a speech that could last well over an hour, Trump could easily say “America” more than 15 times.
Trump said “border” 28 times, and 19 of those mentions were during his CPAC speech when he spoke about securing the country’s borders and his perceived failures of Biden’s policies. Kalshi offers 70% odds on Trump saying “border” at least five times, which he did in two of his three speeches. Trump’s focus on the border bodes well for mentions of illegal immigration, Mexico, and America First during the State of the Union.
Out of Trump’s 21 “Biden” mentions, 16 were in his CPAC speech in which he criticized parts of his predecessor’s record he disapproved of, like “Biden border policies” or “Biden’s weaponization” of the Justice Department. Kalshi traders give Trump a 55% chance of mentioning Biden in his March 4 address.
Least likely State of the Union words
However, Trump’s failure to mention these words in previous speeches doesn’t mean they’re off-limits during the State of the Union. The six weeks between Trump’s inauguration and State of the Union are more than enough for new issues and keywords to seep into his mind.
One of the United States’ most pressing issues is class mobility and the shrinking middle class. A 2024 Pew survey found that the size of the American middle class decreased by 10% from 1970 to 2023. However, the same survey found an 8% increase in the portion of Americans in “upper-income” households, and income gains were greater for upper-income households than middle and lower-income ones. Trump’s March 4 address would be an opportune time for Trump to address how he plans to address these complexities.
Similarly, he could defend his pursuit of Greenland’s statehood, despite the country’s push for independence from Denmark and any other “colonial” power. “Drill baby drill” would also be an easy applause line for his Republican supporters in Congress.
As for culture war issues, Trump may choose to mention them in his State of the Union, but the speech is also an opportunity to play the role of unifier. Professionals like Susie Wiles could nudge Trump in a conciliatory direction for campaign purposes.
Alternatively, the most diehard MAGA members of his team could flaunt Trump’s victory in his enemies’ faces, which would make divisive topics like January 6 and Greenland’s acquisition more likely to come up.
