Trump’s eighth week saw a reset with Ukraine and emerging hostilities with everyone else.
During the week, Trump resumed aid to Ukraine, but the countries that Trump has tariffed have begun to fight back. The European Commission released a report planning retaliatory tariffs on American steel and aluminum. Over the weekend, an early draft of a new travel ban against 43 possible countries was leaked, adding new conflicts to Trump’s second term.
Prediction market platforms PredictIt, Kalshi, and Polymarket have markets on what has happened and the next problems for the Trump administration to tackle.
Which countries will Trump impose a travel ban on in the first 100 days?
Price Highlights: The most likely countries to face a travel ban were Iran (92%), Yemen (91%), and Sudan (90%).
Settlement Criteria: Trump must ban nationals from a listed country by May 1, 2025 for a country’s market to resolve to Yes.
Analysis: Over the weekend, the New York Times reported the existence of a draft list of 43 countries that Trump is considering banning people from. The list separates countries into complete bans on travel, restricted visas, and countries with 60 days to “address concerns.”
Yemen has been attacking shipping routes that pass the country, and its militia is backed by Iran. So, it’s unsurprising to see the odds of those countries’ bans above 90%. Other countries like Turkmenistan were not listed in Kalshi’s market as of Sunday afternoon and may only face visa restrictions instead of outright travel bans.
How many senators voted to confirm Lori Chavez-DeRemer as labor secretary?
Price Resolution: The market resolved to 67 to 69 senators voting to confirm Chavez DeRemer.
Analysis: The Senate confirmed Chavez-DeRemer as Trump’s secretary of labor. She received 67 votes, pulling 17 Democrats from across the aisle to make her one of Trump’s bipartisan nominees. Chavez-DeRemer was once a Republican congresswoman who supported greater union rights, though she distanced herself from that position during her confirmation hearing.
What to Bet on Next: PredictIt has launched a market on the number of tie-breaking votes that the vice president will cast by June 30. He has already broken a tie in the Senate to confirm Pete Hegseth for secretary of defense. The favorable outcome is a 56% chance of one tie-breaking vote by the end of June, but there’s also a 25% chance that Vance will cast another by the settlement date.
Will there be a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in 2025?
Price Highlights: Polymarket traders give Russia and Ukraine a 74% chance of reaching a ceasefire.
Settlement Terms: Both Russia and Ukraine must publicly announce a ceasefire for the market to settle to Yes.
Analysis: Delegations from the United States and Ukraine met in Saudi Arabia to discuss ceasefire and peace terms. These talks set the shape of eventual peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
The talks were productive. Ukraine agreed to the American framework for a 30-day ceasefire, and the United States unfroze military aid and intelligence sharing to Ukraine. It’s a major turnaround from the Oval Office meeting where the president and vice president ganged up on Zelensky.
Which countries will tariff the United States by Q3 2025?
Price Highlights: Kalshi traders give the EU a 97% chance of imposing tariffs on the United States by Q3 2025. Mexico followed close behind at 75%.
Settlement Terms: If a country imposes new tariffs or raises old ones on the United States by July 1, then that country’s market will settle to Yes.
Analysis: On Friday, the European Commission announced it would implement 25% tariffs on American aluminum and steel in retaliation for Trump’s 25% tariffs on European steel and aluminum.
Europe is the latest country to retaliate against Trump’s tariffs. Mexico is considering tariffs against the United States, and while Brazil has remained patient, prolonged negotiations over steel tariffs increase the chances of Brazil responding with tariffs instead of a trade deal.
Will there be a government shutdown in 2025?
Price Highlights: Kalshi traders give the U.S. government a 29% chance of shutting down in 2025.
Settlement Terms: If the government shuts down at any point before 2026, then the market will resolve to Yes.
Analysis: On Friday, the Senate passed the House’s continuing resolution to fund the government through September. The next government shutdown deadline is Sept. 30.
On Tuesday, the House sent a funding bill to the Senate, either setting up a showdown or getting enough Democrats on board to pass the bill. The bill only needed a majority in the House, but it needed 60 votes to make it past cloture in the Senate. It got 62 votes to invoke cloture and passed 54-46. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer announced early that he would support the bill to avoid a government shutdown, angering some of his fellow Democrats for relinquishing the little leverage Democrats had over Republicans and Trump.
Speaker Johnson for his part cobbled together a coalition of representatives who would normally be unwilling to vote for a continuing resolution. It was a legislative victory for Johnson and a moment of weakness for Senate Democrats.
