Less than three months into his second term, President Trump appears concerned that his own voters may be turning against him.
On Thursday, President Trump pulled Elise Stefanik’s nomination for U.N. Ambassador amid concerns about a special election in Florida’s 6th Congressional District. The seat was vacated by Mike Waltz, Trump’s national security adviser, when he joined the administration.
The Democratic candidate in the race has spent more than nine times as much as the Republican running to replace Waltz. While CFTC-regulated prediction market platform Kalshi gives Republicans an 87% chance of holding the seat, the fundraising disparity has Speaker Mike Johnson worried about his narrow three-seat majority.
With Stefanik returning to New York’s 21st Congressional District, Johnson has insurance in case Republicans lose the special election—or if a few members of the caucus rebel during a critical vote.
Although the market on Florida’s 6th Congressional District remains open, traders with money on Stefanik in other markets may see large changes in their portfolios.
Three markets Stefanik’s withdrawal upended
Trump’s decision to pull Stefanik’s nomination caused contracts in three markets to fall to one cent:
- When will Elise Stefanik be confirmed as Ambassador to the U.N.?
- Which senators will vote for Elise Stefanik as U.N. Ambassador?
- How many senators will vote to confirm Elise Stefanik as Ambassador to the U.N.?
Since Stefanik will not be confirmed, the listed date ranges have been settled to “No.” No senators will vote for Stefanik, so the individual senator markets resolved to “No.” The contract range for “70 to below” resolved “Yes,” while all other ranges resolved to “No.”
Traders with interests in single subjects should bear the correlation of certain markets in mind. In closely related markets, a single event can multiply winnings or losses.
