Donald Trump is the 47th president of the United States, and prediction markets have a lot to say about his first hours back in office.
Prediction markets forecasted everything from what Trump would say during his inauguration speech to how many executive orders he will sign on Day 1. Kalshi, a commercial prediction market, and crypto-prediction platform Polymarket offered insights about how Trump would set the tone of his second term.
Here are the prediction markets that sum up Trump’s first day back as president.
Who attended Trump’s inauguration?
Before the inauguration, the former president, vice president, and a handful of influential tech figures were locks to attend the inauguration. Others, including Nancy Pelosi, Michelle Obama, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez were sitting out.
Then there were surprise attendees like Eric Adams and Joe Rogan.
This market speaks to the divisiveness of the Trump era and the anger among Democrats at his second term.
How many people will view Trump’s inauguration?
Trump’s inauguration was expected to get more viewers than his first inauguration, which had 30.635 million. Kalshi gave him a 71% chance of getting more viewers than the first time around. He only had a 62% chance of getting more viewers of his inauguration than Biden, who had 33.76 million viewers in 2021. There were a few factors at play, though, that made this an atypical inauguration.
What will Trump say during his inauguration speech?
Polymarket offered a market on what Trump would say during his inauguration speech. Within his speech’s first few lines, he invoked America First, which had an 87% chance of a mention.
Crypto/bitcoin had a 40% chance of getting mentioned, and AI/Artificial Intelligence had a 36% chance of being mentioned. Neither made it into Trump’s inaugural speech. However, “drill, baby drill” got a mention even though it only had an 11% chance.
Interestingly, “carnage” had a 17% chance of being mentioned. Trump’s first inaugural speech decried “American carnage,” but his second speech painted his criticisms in a more aspirational light. He spoke about being “honest” about America’s challenges instead of using bleak language to paint his dark picture of the country.
Which countries will Trump impose tariffs on in 48 hours?
Kalshi’s traders believe it will take at least a few days before Trump begins imposing tariffs. The top four countries Kalshi’s traders think Trump will impose tariffs on are unlikely to see them in Trump’s first two days in office::
- Canada – 11%
- China – 12%
- Mexico – 10%
- South Korea 7%
How many executive orders will Trump sign?
Kalshi offers a market on the number of executive orders Trump will sign. In its original market, traders believed Trump had a 92% chance of signing more than 15 executive orders. So, Kalshi launched a new market, in which traders believe there’s a 62% chance of Trump signing at least 50 executive orders on Day 1.
Will Trump sign at least 100 executive orders on Day 1?
Polymarket offered a market on whether Trump would sign at least 100 executive orders on his first day back in office. During his inauguration speech, Trump had a 29% chance of breaking 100 in his first day. In his first term, Trump signed 220 executive orders, so breaking 100 on his first day in office would be record-setting. No president has signed 100 executive orders in a year since Harry Truman.
Will Trump issue an executive order on crypto on Day 1?
Before Trump’s inauguration speech, Kalshi traders gave Trump a 69% chance of signing an executive order on crypto on his first day. Those chances fell to 24% after Trump failed to mention crypto in his speech.
How many January 6 protestors will Trump pardon on Inauguration Day?
After Trump’s inauguration speech, Kalshi forecasted that Trump would pardon about 750 January 6 rioters. Traders gave Trump an 80% chance of pardoning at least 100 of them and a 63% chance of pardoning at least 500 on Inauguration Day. Kalshi’s traders are skeptical about Trump pardoning more than 1,000 January 6 rioters, giving him only a 41% chance of doing so.
Will any of Trump’s Cabinet members be confirmed on Day 1?
As early as the end of November 2024, Kalshi traders were optimistic about Trump’s chances of getting someone in his Cabinet confirmed on his first day back in office, which has become increasingly likely as of Monday afternoon.
