On Sunday’s episode of Meet the Press, President Trump said “a lot of people” want him to run for a third term. Stalwart Trump supporters like Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-CO) and Steve Bannon have also begun rallying Republicans behind the idea.
Prediction market traders are taking the idea seriously, too. Commercial prediction market platform Kalshi gives Trump a 14% chance of getting permission to run for a third presidential term. The market will resolve if either:
- The 22nd Amendment limiting presidents to two terms is repealed
- The Supreme Court reinterprets the 22nd Amendment to allow Trump to run for a third term
Trump’s odds of being allowed to run for a third term have increased slightly since his victory in November when they were hovering around 10%.
Challenging the Constitution – again
Trump has long shown his willingness to challenge the Constitution. His false assertions that he won the 2020 election, his disregard for the certified results of the vote, and his inaction during the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol nearly resulted in a Constitutional crisis of its own.
In his second term, Trump has already undermined the separation of powers, calling for judges who issue rulings he disagrees with to be impeached. Meanwhile, his targeting of both legal and illegal immigrants who criticize him threatens First Amendment protections.
Kalshi’s market on a potential third term for Trump is essentially a bet on whether Trump will be able to secure the ability, through legal means, to run again. However, his past behavior suggests that legality may not be a concern of the president.
For what it’s worth, traders give him a 23% chance of launching a campaign for the 2028 Republican nomination but only a 9% chance of winning. At 44%, Vice President J.D. Vance is the overwhelming favorite to lead the ticket.
