On Thursday, Trump signed an executive order ordering the education secretary to begin dismantling the Department of Education.
However, the president and his Cabinet cannot get rid of the department unilaterally. Congress must pass a bill to legally eliminate it. Before the executive order, prediction market platform Kalshi forecasted about a 29% chance that Trump would eliminate the Department of Education this year. The odds fell to 17% in the hours after Trump signed the executive order.
A fact sheet from the White House says the executive order directs the education secretary “to take all necessary steps to facilitate the closure of the Department of Education and return education authority to the States, while continuing to ensure the effective and uninterrupted delivery of services, programs, and benefits on which Americans rely.”
“Closing the Department does not mean cutting off funds from those who depend on them—we will continue to support K-12 students, students with special needs, college student borrowers, and others who rely on essential programs,” Education Secretary Linda McMahon wrote in a statement. “We’re going to follow the law and eliminate the bureaucracy responsibly by working through Congress to ensure a lawful and orderly transition.”
While Trump and McMahon may talk a big game, traders are aware that Congress is required to abolish the department, and they don’t believe a bill will make it to the president’s desk to make it happen.
One-in-five chance Linda McMahon leaves Cabinet first
In the wake of Trump’s executive order, McMahon had a 19% chance of being the first to leave Trump’s Cabinet. Her job is, ironically, to dismantle the agency she was confirmed to lead, so if the other Cabinet members remain in their positions, she could work herself out of a job.
The most likely Cabinet member to leave first is Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. A March 11 Politico story reported that Lutnick could “take the fall” for Trump’s increasingly unpopular tariffs. Private frustrations with Lutnick, like for contradicting Trump’s messaging on tariffs on TV appearances, exacerbate his precarious position.
Traders can still bet on whether Lutnick or someone else will be the first to leave Trump’s Cabinet. In Trump’s first term, 14 Cabinet members left the White House by Biden’s inauguration. Trading volume may be low in this market, but opportunities abound in it.
