On Tuesday, reports surfaced that Trump was preparing an executive order to close the Department of Education. The planned order would cut the Department of Education’s budget and urge Congress to abolish it.
Since his inauguration, CFTC-regulated prediction market Kalshi has given Trump a 16% to 32% chance of abolishing the Department of Education. Those odds surged to 54% on Tuesday before falling sharply on Wednesday. It’s an almost $200,000 market, far short of the trading taking place on Trump’s Cabinet picks but among the popular news cycle markets.
Kalshi’s market will settle if the Department of Education is either sunsetted or shuttered altogether by Jan. 1, 2026. Trump can’t unilaterally eliminate the department, but he can cut funding for certain programs. His allies in Congress could also pass a bill that accomplishes this policy goal.
McMahon could put herself out of a job
Trump wants his Secretary of Education nominee, Linda McMahon, to “put herself out of a job.” McMahon is the former WWE CEO and was a large donor to Trump’s campaign.
She hasn’t had her confirmation hearing yet because the Office of Government Ethics hasn’t received all her financial disclosures. Politico reports that Trump’s executive order might be delayed until McMahon is confirmed, preventing questions about a deadline for eliminating her own job.
Trump has claimed that he wants to return education to the states. The Department of Education compiles education research, standardizes tests, and oversees federal student loans. Curriculums are primarily handled at the state and local levels.
All states receive federal funding for schools through the Department of Education, too, adding a potential complication to Trump’s plan to gut the department altogether. Trump also wants to impose a “patriotic” curriculum, which would be best executed by the Department of Education. It’s also unclear whether Trump is blustering or serious about eliminating the Department.
