Trump spoke with the Russian president on Tuesday, but traders think that’s as close as the two leaders will get any time soon.
Trump and Putin spoke over the phone to discuss peace terms to end the war in Ukraine. On Thursday, traders on crypto prediction market platform Polymarket only gave the two men a 46% chance of meeting in Saudi Arabia by June.
Polymarket’s meeting odds were unstable during the call but ultimately settled around the same price as before the call. The ‘No’ odds only moved from 56% to 54%.
Traders also have little confidence in an earlier meeting in another country. The market on the countries Trump will visit in 2025 has a 30% chance of a visit to Russia. Ukraine only has a 17% chance of a visit from Trump.
Ukraine remains in a dangerous position
Trump’s contact with Putin hasn’t improved Ukraine’s position in the war negotiations, either. Putin agreed to a 30-day ceasefire on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, a prisoner exchange, and further discussions.
However, he conceded little else.
In the Kremlin’s recounting of the call, Putin called for a “complete cessation” of military and intelligence aid to Ukraine to end the conflict. Trump denied that aid was discussed at all in a Fox News interview.
Without military and intelligence aid, Ukraine would struggle against Russia’s larger army. Russia’s use of foreign troops, like North Koreans, maintains its army’s numbers even as Ukraine continues to grind Russian troop figures down.
Russia is also waiting for Western countries to become impatient and reduce aid to Ukraine through democratic means. Voters who elect leaders who wish to reallocate funding to other priorities could do so at Ukraine’s expense. The United States is the largest country to do so, and it remains to be seen whether Europe bands together to halt Russia’s aggression.
The longer a ceasefire agreement takes, the better terms will likely be for Russia rather than Ukraine.
