Could Tesla find itself in the crosshairs of a global tariff war? Amid rising trade tensions, faltering delivery numbers, and shifting political winds, traders on Kalshi are now betting on whether any country will slap tariffs specifically on Tesla products before Jan. 1, 2026.
Kalshi now offers a binary contract based on whether any nation imposes new tariffs directly targeting Tesla goods, whether as standalone measures or through broader import policies. As of this week, the “Yes” contract is gaining traction, with a probability at 67% at time of writing, fueled by a mix of geopolitical signals, weakening fundamentals, and backlash toward CEO Elon Musk’s increasingly visible political presence.
Recent moves rekindle fears of Tesla becoming a target
On April 2, President Trump announced sweeping new tariffs, some of which target countries like China that produce electric vehicles and batteries. While Tesla was not explicitly named, analysts say the ripple effects could invite retaliation — or lead other countries to impose tariffs that hit Tesla products indirectly.
Simultaneously, Tesla’s Q1 delivery numbers disappointed, coming in below Wall Street expectations and allowing Chinese rival BYD to pull ahead in global EV sales. With its dominance eroding and stock price under pressure, any tariff targeting Tesla exports — especially in Europe or Asia — could worsen its position.
Complicating the picture is Musk’s role with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Critics argue the move has politicized Tesla’s brand and may antagonize trade partners.
President Trump recently indicated that Elon Musk could be moving away from his current role in the administration, sources familiar with the matter told ABC News. On April 3, Trump told FOX reporters that he wants Elon Musk to stay on his team “as long as possible,” adding DOGE had found something “horrible.”
The case for Tariffs on Tesla in 2025
- If the U.S. targets EVs or batteries, nations like China or members of the EU may retaliate by taxing Tesla exports to their markets.
- With Musk increasingly associated with U.S. nationalist policy, some foreign governments could use tariffs to push back.
- Tesla’s manufacturing presence in China and Germany could become bargaining chips in larger trade negotiations.
The case against
- While many tariffs are sector-wide, very few countries target specific companies by name. Unless Tesla is singled out, the Kalshi criteria could be tricky to meet.
- Tesla has factories in Shanghai and Berlin, meaning many of its “exports” are actually produced within the region — blunting the effect of cross-border tariffs.
- As nations walk a fine line between competition and cooperation on clean energy, targeting Tesla could backfire politically or economically.
Market resolution uncertainty
The Kalshi market currently yields $9,000 volume, and could remain low due to uncertainty around market resolution criteria. A Kalshi trader asked in the market forum whether a “blanket” EV tariff that includes Tesla would count toward a ‘Yes’ resolution.
The platform has yet to clarify how a blanket policy that results in tariffs on Tesla — without naming the company — would be judged. That uncertainty alone may drive volatility as more nations consider countermeasures to U.S. protectionism.
