Even with North Korean troops in Ukraine, the world may avoid World War III.
Trump spent his first two months in office pressuring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to end the war in Ukraine. Russia sustained many losses throughout the war, but Ukraine inflicted those losses in part thanks to American military aid and intelligence sharing. North Korea lending soldiers to Russia marked a low point for the Russian army, so the war’s end could be in sight.
Prediction markets think the end is coming in 2025. They paint a picture of Ukraine returning to normalcy after three years of war. Commercial prediction market platform Kalshi points to Ukraine resuming elections in 2025 while crypto platform Polymarket indicates early ceasefire terms.
Will Ukraine hold elections in 2025?
On Monday, Kalshi traders gives Ukraine a 46% chance of holding elections in 2025. Ukraine’s constitution prohibits elections during wartime. Russian bombing has also damaged Ukrainian buildings and displaced millions of Ukrainian citizens, making elections impossible to run. A long enough ceasefire could allow Zelensky to call elections, and an end of the war altogether would make elections even more likely.
However, elections are contingent on ceasefire length and terms. Russia would also have to adhere to a ceasefire for Ukraine to safely gather its elected officials under one roof again.
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Will Zelensky resign in 2025?
Kalshi gave Zelensky a 15% chance of resigning on Wednesday. Zelensky said he’d be willing to resign from the presidency if it achieved a peace deal with security guarantees. However, that was back in February amid false accusations of being a dictator. While politicians like Mike Johnson reiterated calls for Zelensky to step down in early March, the requirement for Zelensky to resign has been dropped from peace talks.
If Zelensky leaves power in 2025, it’s more likely to come from an election than his decision to step down. Opposition leaders within Ukraine have publicly opposed elections during wartime, including the man Zelensky defeated to become president, Petro Poroshenko. Even if the Ukrainian constitution allowed wartime elections, they’re not feasible while the fighting continues.
Will Trump and Zelensky meet before April?
There’s a 53% chance that Trump and Zelensky meet again, but there’s no telling whether it’ll be a diplomatic breakthrough or another disaster. Their previous meeting was the infamous Oval Office meeting in which the president and vice president berated Zelensky for being a dictator and for being ungrateful for U.S. military aid.
Ukraine and the United States sent delegations to Saudi Arabia to discuss peace terms and repair the damage from the Oval Office meeting. The United States agreed to unfreeze military aid and intelligence sharing, and Ukraine accepted an American proposal for a 30-day ceasefire. Another meeting between Trump and Zelensky could mark successful steps toward peace, giving Zelensky a chance to flatter Trump and Trump a foreign policy victory.
Will there be a Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine in 2025?
The United States wants the war to end, and prediction markets say the end is in sight. Polymarket traders gave Russia and Ukraine a 78% chance of reaching a ceasefire in 2025. A ceasefire isn’t necessarily an end to the war. Instead, it’s a break in the fighting that could lead to the war’s resolution.
Even though Russia has a larger army, Ukrainians have inflicted devastating losses against the Russian army. Neither army has made significant gains for months, so with the United States pushing aggressively for the war’s end, conditions for a ceasefire seem favorable.
Will Ukraine agree to Trump’s minerals deal before April?
Trump wants Ukraine’s precious minerals, and Polymarket traders give Trump a 62% chance of extracting a deal for them before April.
One of the concessions Trump hoped to get from Ukraine is rights for American companies to drill for precious minerals in Ukraine. Ukraine has great mineral wealth that could revive its economy after the war. Both countries would benefit, and Zelensky is likely anxious to find something he can give Trump to guarantee continued U.S. support.
Even if the minerals deal is insufficient on its own, it will likely be part of the package that Zelensky agrees to with the United States.
Will Ukraine cede territory to Russia in 2025?
Ukraine could be on the cusp of one of its most painful sacrifices since the war’s beginning. Polymarket traders gave Ukraine a 49% chance of ceding territory to Russia in 2025. That market went live the day before, so prices could change dramatically as more users trade in it.
The invasion of Ukraine began in 2022, but Russia invaded and took Crimea in 2014. Russian and Ukrainian soldiers have been at war with each other in that region ever since. Zelensky is not enthusiastic about letting Russia have even more territory.
However, receiving NATO security guarantees for the part of Ukraine that remains out of Russian control could make Zelensky reconsider. The NATO alliance ensures that if one NATO ally is attacked, the other members will come to the invaded country’s aid. If Ukraine were to be added to that alliance, it would have the promise of military defense that Trump rescinded at the beginning of his term.
Whether ceding territory to Russia is realistic will depend on the other terms of the war’s end.
