Tesla’s plan to roll out a fully autonomous robotaxi service has drawn attention from investors and traders on Kalshi, where bets are being placed on whether the company will meet its ambitious timeline.
CEO Elon Musk announced during Tesla’s latest earnings call that the company aims to launch a “no one in the car” robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, by June 2025. “We just want to put a toe in the water, make sure everything’s okay… with safety of the general public and those in the car as a top priority,” Musk said.
The project is expected to leverage Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, which the company has been developing for years. Musk has repeatedly stated that autonomy is central to Tesla’s future, though previous projections on self-driving milestones have faced delays.
Prediction markets react
Following Musk’s announcement, traders on Kalshi have been actively speculating on Tesla’s ability to meet its target. As of mid-February, 65% of traders are betting that a public robotaxi service will launch in 2025, while others remain skeptical due to regulatory and technical challenges.
Industry reactions and competition
Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said the ride-hailing giant is open to working with Tesla’s robotaxi service. “No one wants to compete against Tesla or Elon, if you can help it,” he said during an interview with Ben Thompson, published in Stratechery.
Tesla’s autonomous vehicle rollout comes amid increasing competition in the self-driving space. Alphabet’s Waymo and General Motors’ Cruise have both deployed autonomous taxis in select U.S. cities, though each has faced regulatory scrutiny and operational hurdles.
Regulatory and technical considerations
Tesla’s decision to launch in Texas is influenced by the state’s relatively lenient regulations on autonomous vehicles. Unlike California, where self-driving services face strict oversight, Texas laws allow companies to test and deploy autonomous vehicles with fewer restrictions.
Regulatory experts say that while Texas provides an easier pathway for Tesla, concerns remain over public safety and the readiness of the technology.
Bryant Walker Smith, a law professor at the University of South Carolina, shared with Reuters, “Tesla has conducted minimal public road testing compared to competitors, raising questions about the readiness of its technology for widespread deployment.”
Upcoming
Tesla’s ability to meet its June 2025 target will be closely watched by both investors and regulators. The company has not disclosed specific details on vehicle availability, pricing, or operational logistics for the service.
The official Q1 2025 earnings call is expected to provide further updates on Tesla’s progress.
