Tesla’s quarterly delivery numbers serve as a crucial indicator of the company’s performance, and some prediction market traders see it as an investment opportunity to speculate on where those numbers will land for the quarter.
The most recent Q4 2024 earnings report revealed deliveries of 495,570 vehicles, missing some analyst expectations but demonstrating resilience amid economic pressures. Of these, more than 196,900 vehicles were delivered in China, a record high, contributing 40% of Tesla’s global deliveries for the quarter.
“The EV market was a tale of two markets: China versus everyone else,” said Pavel Molchanov, an analyst at Raymond James. “Global sales increased by 3.5 million units from 2023, and the vast majority of that — 2.9 million — came from China.”
Tesla’s reliance on foreign materials and international sales could pose challenges for the company going forward, particularly with potential policy changes under a new Trump administration.
Kalshi’s market on Tesla deliveries
Kalshi has opened a contract that allows traders to speculate on Tesla’s Q1 2025 delivery numbers, which will be officially released during the next earnings call in April 2025.
As of this writing, about 67% of traders believe deliveries will exceed 370,000, with contracts trading at a slight premium. Meanwhile, only 35% believe the next tier of 390,000 deliveries could be reached.
Geographical distribution of deliveries
Tesla has experienced both volatility and growth in its past delivery figures. The electric vehicle giant set a record in Q4 2023 with 484,507 vehicles delivered. By Q3 2024, deliveries slowed to 435,059 amid supply chain challenges and shifting consumer demand.
Within the 495,570 global deliveries, retail sales in China accounted for 39.73% of the total, per a CNEV report. However, competitors are closing in on Tesla’s market share.
“As is well known, China has the world’s cheapest EVs,” said Molchanov. “This translates into higher volumes but lower margins for Chinese automakers.”
To stay competitive against lower-priced Chinese manufacturers, Tesla has accelerated expansion at its Texas Gigafactory. “Chinese EV companies have a significant presence in Europe, but they have virtually no presence in the U.S.,” Molchanov said.
The company emphasized in its earnings call that increasing production capacity and improving cost efficiencies are key priorities for 2025. Molchanov also noted that Chinese EV companies “have virtually no presence in the U.S.” due to steep tariffs.
“The U.S. tariffs originated before Trump, though it is unsurprising that his administration made them even higher,” Molchanov added.
Tesla delivered a total of 1.79 million cars in 2024, 1.1% below 2023’s record 1.81 million. Tesla had reported at least 35% year-over-year growth dating back to 2016, according to FactSet data.
My pick: Given the strong demand in China and increased production at the Texas Gigafactory, deliveries are likely to surpass 370,000 but may look risky to hit 390,000 due to supply chain uncertainties and potential tariff impacts.
