What to know:
- The prediction market Kalshi has seen over $2 million in trading volume as users bet on which companies will air Super Bowl commercials.
- Companies like Toyota, Hyundai, PepsiCo, Budweiser, and T-Mobile have aired commercials in four out of the last five years, making them strong contenders for Super Bowl LIX.
- With Fox Sports executives hinting at an AI-driven ad presence, major tech companies like Microsoft, Apple, and OpenAI may use the Super Bowl stage to show off their latest innovations.
What are the commercials you remember the most? At least some of them were likely aired during the Super Bowl. Companies invest hundreds of thousands of dollars, if not millions, to make a commercial that leaves an impression.
Super Bowl LIX is on Feb. 9, 2025, and companies have all grabbed a spot. There has been so much competition that Variety reported that at least 10 commercials were sold for more than $8 million.
With so much money in play, it is not a shock that users on the prediction market Kalshi have been betting on which companies will air ads during the Super Bowl since December. The market already has a trading volume of over $2 million.
Let’s take a closer look at which companies are likely to air commercials during the Super Bowl.
Past Super Bowl Commercials
Most people can recall at least one or two Super Bowl commercials but it’s hard to remember from which year and which companies we see most. From the companies currently listed on the market, here is a list of those that aired an ad during the Super Bowl.
| Company | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 |
| Budweiser | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| PepsiCo | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| FanDuel | No | No | No | Yes | Yes |
| T-Mobile | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Apple Inc. | No | No | No | No | No |
| Coca-Cola Company | No | No | No | No | No |
| Verizon | No | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
| OpenAI | No | No | No | No | No |
| Perplexity | No | No | No | No | No |
| Anthropic | No | No | No | No | No |
| Nvidia | No | No | No | No | No |
| Hyundai Motor Company | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Toyota Motor Company | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
| State Farm | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| Progressive | No | No | No | No | Yes |
| xAI | No | No | No | No | No |
Remember to read the rules of a market closely so that you understand what exactly you’re betting on. You don’t want to lose money on a technicality.
An important thing to note when it comes to this market is that users are betting on which companies will air commercials during the Super Bowl not before or after.
Since 2020, certain brands have consistently aired ads for their products. If you look at Toyota, Hyundai (which includes Kia), Verizon, PepsiCo (which includes Doritos), Budweiser (which includes Bud Light), and T-Mobile have all aired commercials in four out of the five last years.
They are frequent staples of the Super Bowl commercial space and are likely to be featured again this year. Some companies have already released a teaser for their commercials or have confirmed they will not be making a commercial.
For example, State Farm will not be airing a commercial this year. They were supposed to but due to the Los Angeles fires, they have chosen to withdraw.
Over 10 companies have already released teasers for their ads including Budweiser, PepsiCo (Doritos), GoDaddy, and NerdWallet. However, it’s unclear if all these companies are airing during the actual event or before/after it.
AI companies ruling the Super Bowl ads this year
Mark Evans, the Executive VP of Ad Sales at Fox Sports, interviewed with the Hollywood Reporter, where he said, “AI is coming. If it’s not already here in almost every business, it will be coming like a freight train… So you will see some more AI focused creative, which I think intuitively would be expected.”
He also said in the interview that we can expect the old companies as well – beverages, tech, snacks, and so on. However, the one category he pointed out as a decline was the film and TV industry. This is not too unexpected given the massive shifts the industry has undergone post-COVID and with multiple strikes.
Evans comments may lead us to consider which AI companies will screen ads this year. We may see tech giants like Microsoft, Apple, and Google flaunting their latest and newest AI tech. Or could we see companies like OpenAI and Anthropic?
This would require a large budget, which many of these companies definitely have, but would also reflect what their priorities are. Will OpenAI spend millions to bring ChatGPT to the Super Bowl viewers?
The Super Bowl ad lineup is shaping up to be a mix of tradition and transformation. Legacy brands will return, but the real intrigue lies in whether AI companies will make their mark on advertising’s biggest night.
