The United States bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities on Saturday, raising concerns about Americans entering a war against Iran. The American bombing run used bunker-buster bombs that could reach deep into the mountainside at nuclear facilities in Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan.
Prediction markets paint a picture of the uncertainty many pundits feel about whether the American conflict with Iran could escalate or push the regime toward collapse. As of midday Monday, the odds of an American invasion remain low (16%), but so do the odds of the United States recognizing Reza Pahlavi as Iran’s new leader by 2026 (25%). The United States’ chances of securing a new nuclear deal with Iran also remain relatively low, but rising (31%).
Taken together, prediction markets suggest that a regime change in Iran’s government will take more than a few military strikes, tactically critical as they may be.
America unlikely to invade in bombing aftermath
According to crypto prediction market platform Polymarket, there’s only a 16% of the United States invading Iran by the end of 2025.
These odds could reflect traders’ confidence that the United States will limit its interventions to direct strikes instead of large commitments of troops. To date, Israel has conducted most of the strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and military leadership. But the United States had the specialized bombs that can target the deepest underground targets.
An invasion would also run counter to President Trump’s deal-making tendencies. He’s been seeking a new nuclear deal with Iran. He is unlikley to want a protracted war where a negotiation was on the table only months before.
However, the most relevant information to pricing this event is in the Pentagon and the Situation Room. Prediction markets probabilities only reflect an aggregation of the information available to the public.
No nuclear deal in sight
Trump pulled out of the Obama administration’s nuclear agreement with Iran. Now that he’s back in power, he’s seeking a new deal that he can take credit for.
It still remains to be seen whether the American strikes will push Iran to accept surrender or a deal. On Sunday, Vice President J.D. Vance admitted that he did not know the location of Iran’s enriched uranium. The fate of that uranium could be decisive in uncovering how this conflict plays out.
Reza Pahlavi unlikely to be recognized Iranian leader in 2025
Reza Pahlavi would be the most likely person to succeed Ayatollah Khamenei. Pahlavi is the son of Iran’s former Shah, who was overthrown in the Islamic Revolution in 1979. Leader of an opposition movement abroad, Pahlavi is well-positioned to seize power if Iran’s theocrats have lost the support of their people–and the army.
The American strikes haven’t propelled his odds of becoming Iran’s recognized leader. It seems it’ll take more than military strikes to bring new leadership to Iran. As always, new information can shift outcome likelihoods in an instant, and prediction markets will be swift to reflect the shifting public sentiment and expectations.
