On Thursday, Robert Kennedy Jr. received 52 votes to become Trump’s Secretary of Health and Human Services. Mitch McConnell joined the Democrats to oppose Kennedy’s confirmation.
Prediction market prices reflected a high chance of Kennedy receiving 52 confirmation votes roughly since his confirmation hearing. Commercial prediction market Kalshi forecasted 52 votes starting Feb. 4. So did Polymarket, a crypto prediction market platform. On PredictIt, an academic prediction market, odds of 52 senators increased beginning on Feb. 3.
In his statement explaining his vote, McConnell expressed concern about Kennedy’s views on public health:
"Mr. Kennedy failed to prove he is the best possible person to lead America’s largest health agency…As he takes office, I sincerely hope Mr. Kennedy will choose not to sow further doubt and division but to restore trust in our public health institutions.”
The other two swing senators fell in line
The only other swing senators are Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins. Both are Republicans who voted against Trump’s wishes in his first term. So, they’ve been senators to watch throughout confirmation votes and hearings. They’ll also be crucial votes for Kash Patel in his bid to be FBI Director.
On Wednesday, Murkowski confirmed that she would support Kennedy’s confirmation. Murkowski cited Kennedy’s “views on vaccines and his selective interpretation of scientific studies” as reasons she initially felt uneasy about his nomination. The issues that won her vote were “promising to work with Congress to ensure public access to information and to base vaccine recommendations on data-driven, evidence-based, and medically sound research.”
Collins affirmed her support for Kennedy on Monday. In a statement to the Portland Press Herald on Tuesday, Collins said that Kennedy “told me he believed in the efficacy of the polio vaccine, and said he would help restore Americans’ confidence in vaccines and our health agencies.” Kennedy also assuaged concerns about funding cuts to research facilities in Maine.
With Patel’s confirmation vote coming up, these two senators and McConnell will continue to be worth watching.
