This week in prediction markets may be the biggest week for prediction markets…ever.
The crazy part? It’s only the beginning.
Let’s catch you up to speed, as we recap the top prediction market stories, of which there are many, and look ahead at everything we’ll be trading this weekend.
Election bets, commence!
Rejoice! For the first time in nearly a century, Americans can legally trade on U.S. elections. Already, hundreds of thousands of dollars have poured into the fresh political markets, marking a new era of trading.
Millions in liquidity at launch, let's do this!! pic.twitter.com/ON52zhJPT1
— Luana Lopes Lara (@luanalopeslara) October 4, 2024
Indeed, a welcome sight for anyone who believes in the promise of prediction markets — and it’s all thanks to Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction market that came out on top in a long-fought bout with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
So far, you can get in on the action on both Kalshi and Interactive Brokers’ ForecastEx platform, but there’s undoubtedly more to come.
Prediction markets’ big moment?
While the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals’ decision is historical, we can’t yet call it a down-goes-Frazier moment for prediction markets’ biggest antagonist. In fact, the CFTC may still have some tricks up their sleeves.
Our own Chris Gerlacher looks into the looming threat, explaining how the CFTC may try to stop election markets again.
However, if you’ve been rooting for the widespread adoption of prediction markets, this certainly feels like the industry’s big moment.
Hey @elonmusk, how long until we get prediction markets on X? I want to quickly bet against people I disagree with. https://t.co/AvUtS73iMk
— Nathan 🔍 (@NathanpmYoung) October 4, 2024
Polymarket’s quandary
There’s another resolution controversy at Polymarket, an unregulated blockchain-based prediction market that actually offers markets on everything (but is not available to U.S. customers).
When we say everything, we mean everything: if a Diddy sex tape will be released, how many times Elon Musk will tweet, and gut-wrenching global events and crises, like if Israel will invade Lebanon by the end of September, are just a few live examples.
It feels wrong that Polymarket has an entire Hezbollah betting section that makes a war look like a football game to bet on. pic.twitter.com/zrcSYnJmyr
— Legendary (@legendarygainz_) September 30, 2024
September has ended, yet the Israel-Lebanon market’s outcome is still pending, as traders dispute the resolution with $5 million (and growing) on the line.
Thes issue? the ambiguity of definitions. Kristen Wen dives into the controversy.
VP debate recap
So much has happened it’s easy to forget there was a vice presidential debate on Tuesday, which drew millions of dollars in predictions, with traders betting on what the candidates would say, how many viewers would tune in, and who would win the debate according to polls.
Walz entered as the favorite, but the market flipped in real-time as J.D. Vance showed off his Ivy League debate skills.
Halfway through Walz's first answer and his odds of winning the debate fell from ~60% to ~50% pic.twitter.com/E1r8R3ftHC
— Prediction News (@PredictionNews_) October 2, 2024
Will there be another debate between the presidential campaigns? Kalshi traders say don’t count on it, forecasting merely at 12% chance that Kamala Harris and Donald Trump will meet again.
More things to trade
If politics ain’t your thing, may we interest you in a helping of Rotten Tomatoes scores and video games?
Dennis Aronov looks at what prediction markets are saying about ‘Joker: Folie à Deux’. He also investigates the timeline of ‘Grand Theft Auto 6’ TBD release — yes, you can bet on that, too.
