On Tuesday evening, the Senate voted to invoke cloture on Linda McMahon’s nomination for secretary of education. The 51-47 vote was along party lines, with two Republicans not voting. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) was in the hospital with a head injury, and Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) was in Alabama.
Political prediction market platform PredictIt traders originally thought McMahon had a 66% chance of getting 53 to 54 confirmation votes. After the cloture vote, that forecast changed to a 75% chance of getting 52 or fewer confirmation votes. Her confirmation vote is expected Monday, which may keep Cramer from participating.
On other Cabinet nominees, the cloture vote has been a strong signal about the likely confirmation vote count for Trump’s nominees. For example, traders on Kalshi forecasted a high chance of a unanimous confirmation for Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy based on his 97-0 cloture vote.
McMahon’s impact on the Department of Education
In response to questions from Democratic senators Elizabeth Warren and Andy Kim, McMahon said she “wholeheartedly” agreed with Trump’s call to abolish the Department of Education.
Eliminating the Education Department would also get rid of student loan forgiveness programs. The Trump administration already suspended new applications for a federal student loan forgiveness program on Friday, previewing what losing the Education Department would look like. The Department of Education also ensures equal access to education for all sorts of students, like low-income students or those with disabilities.
The Trump administration has not announced alternatives to these programs in other federal agencies. While the Education Department requires an act of Congress to be abolished, McMahon could dismantle programs that perform some of the department’s functions.
McMahon seems poised to be confirmed by the Republican Senate and give states the ability to decide education policy–for better and for worse.
