Prediction markets bill themselves as neutral alternatives to political pundits, and the RFK confirmation battle seems to bear the markets out.
Robert Kennedy Jr. is Trump’s controversial nominee for Secretary of Health and Human Services. Kalshi’s market on who Trump’s HHS Secretary doubted Kennedy’s chances when he was first nominated in November. His confirmation odds opened at about 66% then fell to 22% over the next six days.
Like his fellow controversial nominees Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard, Kennedy had to work hard to court senators. Senators also faced pressure campaigns from Trump’s base. Before his vote to move Kennedy from the Senate Finance Committee to the Senate floor, Bill Cassidy was pushed to vote for Kennedy by Trump’s voters and vice president.
Kalshi traders give Kennedy a 97% chance of being confirmed now that he’s cleared the committee.
Despite overwhelming Republican support, pundits have doubts about Kennedy’s confirmation chances.
Pundits make the case for the 3%
On Jan. 29, conservative pundit Bill O’Reilly said that Kennedy would “go down” in the Senate. He justified that belief by pointing out senators’ six-year term insulated them from angry voters compared to the two-year House terms. Kalshi’s odds were at 78% on the day O’Reilly made this analysis and only dropped as low as 70% the next day.
Senate terms are staggered so that only one-third of the chamber is up for re-election each cycle. Cassidy, the crucial Republican swing vote that pushed Kennedy to the Senate floor, is up for re-election in 2026.
MSNBC reached a similar conclusion as O’Reilly. A Maddow blog post titled “New revelations complicate the Gabbard, RFK Jr. confirmation fights” suggested that new information could reduce RFK’s confirmation chances. The article noted that many of the doctors Senator Ron Johnson cited in support of Kennedy were not real doctors.
Kennedy’s lack of medical experience and career as an anti-vax lawyer didn’t prevent his original nomination or kill it in the Senate Finance Committee. Kalshi’s traders had Kennedy’s odds at 82% on Feb. 3.
Prediction markets allow for uncertainty in their forecasts. Across a large enough sample size, one-in-five events happen frequently. Trump’s 2016 electoral victory was about a one-in-five chance on PredictIt. His 2024 popular vote victory was just under one in four on Kalshi.
But uncertainty can be narrowed down, and Republican submission on Hegseth’s confirmation occurred before both punditry examples. The prediction market snapshot seems compelling, especially in markets with a wealth of public information with many interpretations.
