The Trump administration has put a freeze on many federal health agency communications with the public through at least the end of the month, coinciding with egg prices reaching historic highs—the dual developments come as top prediction markets facilitate bets on broader economic and public health risks tied to avian flu outbreaks and federal policy shifts.
Egg prices across the U.S. have soared, with some regions reporting costs exceeding $10 per dozen. This is largely attributed to the ongoing H5N1 outbreak, which has decimated poultry flocks and disrupted supply chains.
“I will direct all members of my cabinet to marshal the vast powers at their disposal to defeat what was record inflation and rapidly bring down costs and prices,” Trump said during his inauguration speech last week, “The inflation crisis was caused by massive overspending and escalating energy prices.”
Kalshi prediction markets anticipate higher prices in February, with traders forecasting significant increases in food prices. Earlier this month, the market for rising egg prices showed a 70% probability of “egg prices going up in Trump’s first month in office,” and has since jumped to 85%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January rose 2.9% year-over-year, slightly above economists’ expectations. Kalshi markets also tracked inflation trends, with bets on CPI exceeding 2.8% trading at 78% earlier in January.
Avian flu outbreak drives egg prices higher
The H5N1 bird flu outbreak, one of the most severe in U.S. history, remains the primary driver of the egg price spike. The USDA reports that over 58 million birds were culled in 2024 to curb the disease, quickly reducing the nation’s egg supply.
Kalshi sees the outbreak as a potential pandemic threat, with 37% probability of bird flu being declared a public health emergency this year. However, the trend has been declining.
Additionally, cases of H5N1 exceeding 100 are trading at 66%, while cases surpassing 1,000 are at 41%, with trading volume exceeding $495,000.
Concerns about communication freeze
Kalshi traders have spotted a potential pandemic threat. Some public health experts have also shared concerns with the Trump administration’s freeze on federal health agency communications.
Dr. Brian Castrucci, president of the de Beaumont Foundation, said in a statement shared with ABC News, “Cutting off communications from CDC puts our health at risk and prevents our doctors, nurses, and public health leaders in our communities from doing their jobs. I urge the administration to quickly lift the pause.”
