What to know:
- While past Captain America films have performed well critically, Brave New World faces added scrutiny due to Anthony Mackie taking over the lead role, recent superhero fatigue, and reports of troubled test screenings leading to major reshoots.
- The prediction market on Kalshi, which has already seen over $100,000 in trade volume, suggests lukewarm expectations for the film’s Rotten Tomatoes score.
- Marvel’s recent films have had mixed critical and box office performances, with some even receiving Rotten scores.
Captain America: Brave New World has a new hero stepping into the iconic titular Marvel superhero. Now Anthony Mackie is at the head of the film and it will be released on Feb. 14, 2025.
With over $100,000 in trade volume and opened on Jan. 22, 2025, Kalshi bettors have been predicting the film’s Rotten Tomatoes score on the top prediction market. With a low of 50.5 and a high of 68.7, users don’t seem to think the film will be overwhelmingly positively received.
Here’s what you need to know about Captain America: Brave New World, past Rotten Tomatoes history, and early reception.
What is ‘Captain America: Brave New World’?
Captain America: Brave New World is the latest film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU). The film is part of Phase Five of the MCU and follows a new Captain America.
Anthony Mackie returns as the high-flying hero Sam Wilson, who’s officially taken up the mantle of Captain America. After meeting with newly elected U.S. President Thaddeus Ross, Sam finds himself in the middle of an international incident. He must discover the reason behind a nefarious global plot before the true mastermind has the entire world seeing red.
Directed by Julius Onah, the film’s cast features Anthony Mackie, Danny Ramirez, Shira Haas, Xosha Roquemore, Carl Lumbly, Giancarlo Esposito, Liv Tyler, Tim Blake Nelson, and Harrison Ford. The film was reportedly in the works after the series finale of The Falcon and the Winter Soldier back in April 2021.
Critical reception of ‘Captain America’ movies
Despite this film being Mackie’s first time as Captain America, this is the fourth Captain America movie in the MCU.
| Movie | Rotten Tomatoes Score |
| Captain America: The First Avenger | 80% |
| Captain America: Winter Soldier | 90% |
| Captain America: Civil War | 90% |
| The Falcon and the Winter Soldier | 85% |
If you look at the Rotten Tomatoes scores of these films, they have performed exceptionally well. However, the three movies were in earlier phases of the MCU before the current “superhero fatigue” era we are currently in.
Many of the recent Marvel movies are not performing nearly as well at the box office, with a much more uneven critical performance. However, Captain America is beloved and the last Marvel project Mackie headlined also performed well critically.
Prior to Avengers: Endgame, no MCU movie received a Rotten score. Unfortunately, after is a different story. Two of the 12 recent films received Rotten scores – Eternals (2021) and Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania. The other 10 films ranged from 62 to 93.
In terms of the director’s past Rotten Tomatoes history, Onah has directed three movies previously. Luce (2019) received a Certified Fresh score of 91%, The Cloverfield Paradox (2018) got a Rotten score of 22%, and The Girl Is in Trouble (2012) had a Fresh score of 61%.
He has one in every category, which makes it difficult to draw any conclusions on how this may affect Captain America: Brave New World. It only proves this wouldn’t be the first time one of his films received a Rotten or Fresh score.
Early reviews of ‘Captain America: Brave New World’
With Mackie taking on the new role, it is possible that critics will be harsher if they are comparing him to Chris Evans’ Captain America. This may negatively impact his score.
In addition, the film’s odd release date on Valentine’s Day may have everyone questioning the connection. However, reviewers may be excited to see Ford joining the movie.
We also won’t be seeing any social media reactions or reviews until the week before the movie’s release date. The social embargo will be lifted on Tuesday, Feb. 11 and the full review embargo will be lifted the following day.
Back in 2023, it was reported the film’s early test screening was not received well. In 2024, the film underwent major reshoots and the film was being reworked. This is not a great sign for the movie.
Harrison Ford on working with Anthony Mackie on ‘CAPTAIN AMERICA: BRAVE NEW WORLD’
— Captain America News (@UpdatesCAP4) February 3, 2025
“And for me, he’s Captain America”
(via: @extratv) pic.twitter.com/8nvsc3FGhP
Given the combination of a lead actor transition, reported production challenges, and shifting audience sentiment toward superhero films, Captain America: Brave New World is unlikely to be a disaster — but it may struggle to reach the high critical acclaim of its predecessors.
