Last November, one week after Election Day, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan woke up to federal agents raiding his New York City apartment as they seized his cell phone and other electronic devices. On Friday, the 27-year-old college dropout-turned-prediction market pioneer joined the likes of Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev, and other crypto industry leaders at the first-ever White House Crypto Summit.
Polymarket, a prediction market that runs on blockchain technology in which users fund their accounts with a crypto “stablecoin,” surged in popularity last fall as it facilitated $3.6 billion in election bets. More importantly, the platform correctly forecasted Donald Trump as the favorite to win the 2024 election.
The November raid, part of an investigation into Polymarket’s operations and whether they were allowing U.S. users to place bets despite regulatory restrictions, was not Polymarket’s first encounter with the feds. In early 2022, the company settled with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for operating an unregistered derivatives trading platform, agreeing to pay a $1.4 million penalty and to cease offering markets that violated the Commodity Exchange Act. Despite the challenges, Polymarket continued to operate, with users reportedly bypassing restrictions using virtual private networks (VPNs).
In July, Coplan was photographed with Donald Trump Jr. at the Republican National Convention, and the Trump team, on more than one occasion, has said it leaned on prediction markets to keep track of the race, including more granular forecasts for key swing states.
Bunch of Silicon Valley folks were at the RNC this week as Republicans do better and better with tech.
— Teddy Schleifer (@teddyschleifer) July 20, 2024
Here’s a pic someone sent me, for instance. Lot of JD Vance supporters:
— @DavidSacks
— @Shervin
— @KenHowery
— @RealOmeedMalik
— @shayne_coplan
— @DonaldJTrumpJr pic.twitter.com/f7yoygTPLh
Trump Jr. now interestingly sits on the board of Kalshi, Polymarket’s biggest competitor in the prediction market space. Meanwhile, Coplan tapped a former Trump advisor and ally of the president, David Urban, to lobby on its behalf.
'That was the environment a year ago'
Despite Coplan’s attendance at the summit, prediction markets were absent from the public discussion. While crypto, blockchain, and stablecoins were key topics, Coplan did not speak—at least not during the portion of the event that was aired on television. Various attendees did mention hurdles they faced from the previous administration, as White House AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks pointed out that one guest, Cameron Winkelvoss, thought it was more likely that they would end up in jail than at the White House.
“Not to put you on the spot because you didn’t do anything wrong, ” Sacks said. “But that was the environment a year ago.”
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong gets passed over twice to speak in favor of the Winklevoss twins and @SergeyNazarov @DavidSacks called on @Cameron to talk about how as a crypto founder it was more likely he would wind up in jail than the White House:
— Coinage (@coinage_media) March 7, 2025
"That was actually @Tyler" pic.twitter.com/QfAQ4BpUoe
In any case, the script has indeed flipped for the crypto and prediction market industries which, not long ago, faced existential threats from hostile regulators. The summit, alongside Coplan’s appearance, reflects the government’s now laissez-faire attitude toward alternative technologies and institutions — a shift that became evident as Trump assembled his team, from cabinet picks to new advisors.
Scott Bessent, now treasury secretary, echoed this shift in his remarks at the summit, stating, “We’re looking to end the regulatory weaponization against digital assets.” He also emphasized that “a lot of thought” was being put into the “stablecoin regime”—a nod to ongoing discussions about how digital currencies should be treated within the U.S. financial system.
Meanwhile, Trump’s commerce secretary touted the administration’s approach to technology. “Technology is at the foundation of the Trump administration,” said Howard Lutnick. “The blockchain and bitcoin technology are a key part of that thinking.”
Other personnel moves within the Trump administration further underscore this stance. The president picked Kalshi board member Brian Quintenz to lead the CFTC. During his previous tenure as a CFTC commissioner, a role in which he was initially appointed by President Obama, Quintenz advocated for friendly regulatory frameworks to foster innovation in the nascent crypto and blockchain space, and in a notable dissent, defended sports event contracts. Most recently, Quintenz was Head of Policy at a16z, Marc Andreesen’s crypto venture capital fund.
Yet while crypto and prediction markets gain favor in Washington, the fate of Polymarket remains an open bet. Coplan’s invite to the White House raises questions about his company’s future—whether it’s on the path to legitimacy or will remain navigating murky waters.
