What to know:
- With strong critical acclaim and high Rotten Tomatoes scores, No Other Land and Porcelain War have the best shot at winning Best Documentary Feature at the Oscars. However, geopolitical factors and audience sentiment could influence the final outcome.
- With over $7 million in trading volume on Kalshi’s Oscars markets, No Other Land leads with a 65% chance, followed by Porcelain War at 27%.
- While No Other Land and Porcelain War are the favorites, Sugarcane, Soundtrack to a Coup d’État, and Black Box Diaries have all received high praise and could capitalize on voter sentiment changes.
Oscars Predictions for Best Doc
The 97th Academy Awards are less than a month away and the Oscars betting is only heating up. On top prediction platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, you can bet on your favorites in each Oscars category.
Kalshi’s Oscar markets already amount to more than $7 million with the biggest market – Best Picture – at $3.6 million. However, you don’t only have to bet on the huge markets. If you look at the smaller ones like Best Documentary Feature Film, you can do your research and win big before the market gets big.
Here is what you need to know about each of the nominees.
No Other Land
No Other Land is directed by a group of four Palestinian-Israeli activists – Basel Adra, Hamdan Ballal, Yuval Abraham, and Rachel Szor. The film documents the ongoing conflict in Israel/Palestine.
The film was co-produced by Norway and Palestine and premiered in February 2024 at the Berlin International Film Festival. At the festival, the film won both the Berlinale Documentary Award and the Panorama Audience Award for Best Documentary Film.
For half a decade, Basel Adra, a Palestinian activist, films his community of Masafer Yatta being destroyed by Israel’s occupation, as he builds an unlikely alliance with a journalist from the other side who joins his fight.
The film is Certified Fresh with a 100% score on Rotten Tomatoes based on 77 reviews. On Cineuropa’s Best European works of 2024, the journalists ranked No Other Land at the No. 3 spot. On the Kalshi market, it is currently the frontrunner with a forecasted chance of 65%.
Porcelain War
American director Brendan Bellomo and Ukrainian artist Slava Leontyev directed Porcelain War. This film was shot on GoPro body cams and camera drones, which captured more than 500 hours of footage.
The film premiered at the 2024 Sundance Film Festival and won the Grand Jury Prize for the U.S. documentary category.
Amidst the chaos and destruction of the brutal Russian invasion of Ukraine, three artists defiantly find inspiration and beauty as they defend their culture and their country. In a war waged by professional soldiers against ordinary civilians, Slava Leontyev, Anya Stasenko, and Andrey Stefanov choose to stay behind, armed with their art, their cameras, and, for the first time in their lives, their guns.
The film is Fresh with a 95% Rotten Tomatoes score based on 38 reviews. Porcelain War also won the Best Documentary award at the Seattle International Film Festival. On Kalshi, the film is the second most likely to win the Oscar at 27%.
Sugarcane
Sugarcane was directed by filmmakers Julian Brave NoiseCat and Emily Kassie. The film also premiered at the 2024 Sundance Film Festival and lost the Grand Jury Prize to Porcelain War. However, the film won the Best Director award in the documentary category.
In 2021, evidence of unmarked graves was discovered on the grounds of an Indian residential school run by the Catholic Church in Canada. After years of silence, the forced separation, assimilation and abuse many children experienced at these segregated boarding schools was brought to light, sparking a national outcry against a system designed to destroy Indigenous communities.
Sugarcane is Certified Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes with a 100% score based on 64 reviews. The National Board of Review named Sugarcane the Best Documentary of 2024. The film is currently the third most likely to win the category on Kalshi with a forecasted chance of 11%.
Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat
Johan Grimonprez directed the documentary Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat. The film was made entirely with archival footage. It also premiered at the 2024 Sundance Film Festival and won the award for Cinematic Innovation.
Jazz and decolonization are entwined in this historical rollercoaster that rewrites the Cold War episode that led musicians Abbey Lincoln and Max Roach to crash the UN Security Council in protest against the murder of Patrice Lumumba.
Certified Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, Soundtrack to a Coup d’État has a 96% score based on 54 reviews. Screen Daily ranked this film as the top movie of 2024. Currently, the fourth most likely to win Best Documentary at the Oscars on Kalshi with 5%.
Black Box Diaries
Black Box Diaries is directed by Japanese filmmaker and journalist Shiori Itō. The film is based on Itō’s 2017 debut memoir. Like three of the other nominees, this film also debuted at the 2024 Sundance Film Festival. However, this film did not win an award at the festival.
Journalist Shiori Itō embarks on a courageous investigation of her own sexual assault in an attempt to prosecute her high-profile offender. Her quest becomes a landmark case in Japan, exposing the country’s outdated judicial and societal systems.
Black Box Diaries is Certified Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes with a 98% score and 64 reviews. The National Board of Review recognized this documentary as one of the best five documentaries of 2024.
The film has had some controversy with a former attorney (who represented Itō) claiming the director didn’t protect sources and used footage without consent. Itō responded that this footage was critical to the film and claimed the attorney had breached attorney-client confidentiality.
On Kalshi, this film is the least likely to win the category with only a 4% chance.
While all documentaries have won praise and critical recognition for the impactful stories they highlighted, No Other Land and Porcelain War are most likely to win. In the last two years, documentaries about Ukraine have won the Best Documentary Feature Film Oscar – Navalny in 2022 and 20 Days in Mariupol in 2023.
It’s difficult to know if No Other Land can win over Porcelain War. In an August 2022 Gallup poll, 66% of Americans believed the U.S. “should support Ukraine in reclaiming its former territory.” However, when it comes to the Israeli/Palestinian conflict, American opinions are much more mixed.
With much more division in the Palestinian conflict, this may lead to Academy voters giving it to Porcelain War. But there may be some “fatigue” when it comes to the Ukrainian conflict or split votes which can lead to a dark horse winning the award.
