What to know:
- Nearly all major critics and prediction markets favor Anora to win Best Picture, with strong backing from its Palme d’Or win and momentum from other major awards.
- Kalshi’s Best Picture market is nearing $5 million in trading volume, and Polymarket is exceeding $3 million.
- While precursor awards like the Golden Globes and BAFTAs offer clues, Best Picture rarely aligns perfectly with the Academy’s final decision.
Some of the greatest movies ever have won the Best Picture Oscar. The Silence of the Lambs, Forrest Gump, and Rocky, to name a few.
However, not every incredible movie has won the Best Picture category. A competitive year can leave movies like The Shawshank Redemption or Dead Poets Society without a win.
So what is it exactly that makes a movie the right choice for Best Picture? Honestly, it’s a combination of factors that are largely much more than just the quality of the movie.
The current political environment, behind-the-scenes drama, and a number of other things can affect these decisions. This year’s Oscars are no different.
The 97th Academy Awards will be held this Sunday, March 2, 2025. This year’s Best Picture category is stacked with films that come from around the world and range from topics like a movie musical adaptation to a sex worker’s marriage to a Russian oligarch’s son.
Given the extreme competition, it’s not too surprising that Oscar betting is intense on top prediction markets. Kalshi’s Best Picture market has a trading volume of just under $5,000,00, and Polymarket’s market has over $3,000,000.
A smart choice can be a profitable one, so here’s what you need to know about the Top 3 choices for Best Picture.
2025 Best Picture Oscar forecast
Anora
Anora is the current frontrunner for this year’s Best Picture Oscar odds. The film was written, produced, directed, and edited by Sean Baker. It stars American actress Mikey Madison and a group of Russian and Armenian actors: Mark Eidelstein, Yura Borisov, Karren Karagulian, Vache Tovmasyan, and Aleksei Serebryakov.
A young escort from Brooklyn meets and impulsively marries the son of a Russian oligarch. Once the news reaches Russia, her fairy tale is threatened as his parents set out for New York to get the marriage annulled.
The film premiered at the 77th Cannes Film Festival and won the coveted Palme d’Or. The film has won many awards, including Best Picture at the Critics’ Choice Awards, and Madison won Best Actress at the BAFTAs. Baker also won the award for Best Director in a Feature Film at the Directors Guild of America Awards.
Conclave
According to Kalshi and Polymarket, Conclave has the second-best Oscar odds for Best Picture. The film is based on a 2016 novel by Robert Harris. The cast features Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, John Lithgow, and Isabella Rossellini.
Conclave follows one of the world’s most secretive and ancient events – selecting the new Pope. Cardinal Lawrence (Ralph Fiennes) is tasked with running this covert process after the unexpected death of the beloved Pope.
The film premiered at the 51st Telluride Film Festival and has since won many awards at the Oscar precursor awards. The film won big at the BAFTAs – Best Film, Outstanding British Film, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Editing. The film also won Best Cast at the SAG Awards and Best Screenplay at the Golden Globes.
The Brutalist
The Brutalist is the third most likely to win the Best Picture Oscar, according to the top prediction markets. The period drama’s cast includes Adrien Brody, Felicity Jones, Guy Pearce, and Joe Alwyn.
Escaping post-war Europe, visionary architect László Toth arrives in America to rebuild his life, his work, and his marriage to his wife Erzsébet after being forced apart during wartime by shifting borders and regimes.
After premiering at the 81st Venice International Film Festival, it went on to be wildly successful. The film won Best Motion Picture – Drama at the Golden Globes, along with Best Director for Brady Corbet and Best Actor for Adrien Brody.
Past Best Picture Oscar winners
While there are 10 Best Picture nominees, these three films are considered the top contenders. But let’s take a closer look at each film’s Oscar betting odds based on the precursor awards.
Year | Oscar Winner | Golden Globe Winner Drama | Comedy /Musical | Critics’ Choice Winner | BAFTA Winner | SAG Winner |
2010 | The King’s Speech | The Social Network | The Kids Are All Right | The Social Network | The King’s Speech | The King’s Speech |
2011 | The Artist | The Descendants | The Artist | The Artist | The Artist | The Help |
2012 | Argo | Argo | Les Misérables | Argo | Argo | Argo |
2013 | 12 Years a Slave | 12 Years a Slave | American Hustle | 12 Years a Slave | 12 Years a Slave | American Hustle |
2014 | Birdman | Boyhood | The Grand Budapest Hotel | Boyhood | Boyhood | Birdman |
2015 | Spotlight | The Revenant | The Martian | Spotlight | The Revenant | Spotlight |
2016 | Moonlight | Moonlight | La La Land | La La Land | La La Land | Hidden Figures |
2017 | The Shape of Water | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | Lady Bird | The Shape of Water | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri | Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri |
2018 | Green Book | Bohemian Rhapsody | Green Book | Roma | Roma | Black Panther |
2019 | Parasite | 1917 | Once Upon a Time in Hollywood | Once Upon a Time in Hollywood | 1917 | Parasite |
2020 | Nomadland | Nomadland | Borat Subsequent Moviefilm | Nomadland | Nomadland | The Trial of the Chicago 7 |
2021 | CODA | The Power of the Dog | West Side Story | The Power of the Dog | The Power of the Dog | CODA |
2022 | Everything Everywhere All at Once | The Fabelmans | The Banshees of Inisherin | Everything Everywhere All at Once | All Quiet on the Western Front | Everything Everywhere All at Once |
2023 | Oppenheimer | Oppenheimer | Poor Things | Oppenheimer | Oppenheimer | Oppenheimer |
2024 | TBD | The Brutalist | Emilia Pérez | Anora | Conclave | Conclave |
Unlike other categories at the Oscars, there doesn’t seem to be a clear pattern when it comes to the precursor awards and the Oscars Best Picture. Since 2010, these five awards shows have all been on the same page only once.
More often than not, the awards seem to differ. The only thing to note is that only once since 2010 did the Academy voters choose a movie that none of the other award shows chose. Typically, at least one of the winners from the four precursor awards is chosen also by the Academy voters. This is a strong sign for The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez, Anora, and Conclave.
Given all of the drama and controversy surrounding Emilia Pérez’s Karla Sofía Gascón, it is likely off the table. This leaves the three other films. But what are critics saying?
Source | Predicted Winner |
Rolling Stone | Anora |
Indie Wire | Anora |
Vanity Fair | Anora |
Variety | Anora |
Hollywood Reporter | Anora |
Gold Derby | Anora (5/1) |
IMDB | Conclave |
Entertainment Weekly | Anora |
Los Angeles Times | Anora |
The Independent | Anora |
Kalshi | Anora (66%) |
Polymarket | Anora (63%) |
FanDuel | Anora (-200) |
Resources used: Rolling Stone, IndieWire, Vanity Fair, Variety, Hollywood Reporter, Gold Derby, IMDB, Entertainment Weekly, Los Angeles Times, The Independent, and FanDuel.
Nine out of 10 of these critics believe Anora will win the category, with only IMDB’s editorial staff predicting Conclave.
Ultimately, it all comes down to the mindset of Academy voters. Is Anora’s storyline too risqué for the voters? Conclave is a much more traditional story, and The Brutalist is an art masterpiece (albeit a long one).
While Anora is the frontrunner, Oscar bettors who want to take a big swing can bet on the second-most likely film, Conclave. But with the Oscars, you never know – we could be in for a big surprise.
