On Wednesday, the prediction market Kalshi’s forecast of Trump visiting Russia almost tripled from 24% to 68%. Trump held a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin in which they agreed to work together to end the war in Ukraine. While there was initial hype, Kalshi’s probability settled at 56% by Wednesday evening.
The forecast of Trump visiting Ukraine also spiked and fell. They rose from 34% to 56% after Trump’s call with Russia, then fell to 30% on Wednesday evening. Trump had a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky after the Putin call, but that call did not lead to a lasting price change.
Overall, Kalshi’s market on which country Trump will visit in 2025 has about $200,000 in trade volume. The markets for individual countries are smaller. As of Thursday morning, Russia’s trade volume is $14,784 and Ukraine’s is $7,655. The Russian market had a one-cent bid-ask spread, while Ukraine’s had a four-cent spread.
Trump’s position on the war in Ukraine
During his campaign, Trump promised he would end the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours.” The war in Ukraine began in 2022 when Russia invaded the country and tried to seize Keiv, the capital city. It was an escalation that began when Russia seized Crimea, a region of southeastern Ukraine, in 2014.
Trump’s pledge to end the war in such a short time was bluster. Polymarket only gives Trump a 35% chance of ending the war in his first 90 days. However, Trump’s pledges reflected a genuine desire to secure a major foreign policy victory early in his second term.
His post describing the phone calls with Putin and Zelensky signals the beginning of negotiations, which will involve visits with leaders of both countries. Even if Trump doesn’t visit Ukraine in 2025, he’ll have to meet with Zelensky to secure his agreement to end the war. Trump has floated the idea of meeting Putin in Saudi Arabia for their first meeting, so the leaders could meet without visiting Russia or Ukraine.
I just had a lengthy and highly productive phone call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia. We discussed Ukraine, the Middle East, Energy, Artificial Intelligence, the power of the Dollar, and various other subjects. We both reflected on the Great History of our Nations, and…
— Donald J. Trump Posts From His Truth Social (@TrumpDailyPosts) February 12, 2025
Whatever a country’s odds for a Trump visit, the meaning of that visit is probably covered by a different prediction market.
