Pope betting trading markets have returned.
On Monday afternoon, following the death of Pope Francis, the CFTC-regulated prediction market Kalshi launched a market asking Who will be the next Pope?
By Tuesday morning, more than $300,000 had been traded on the new Kalshi event. Polymarket, which launched a market on the same question back in February when Frances first became ill, has seen $4 million in trading volume.
“The papal election is a critical event with many people around the globe being impacted depending on who wins,” a Kalshi representative told Prediction News.
But trading (or betting, predicting, whatever you want to call it) on the papacy isn’t new. In fact, betting on the Pope was the original prediction market.
Pope prediction markets go way back
Gambling on papal conclaves dates back to the 16th century, and was the first documented form of election betting, eventually becoming an excommunicable offense. (Don’t worry, Catholics—this hasn’t been the case since 1918.)
Today, the spirit of those centuries-old wagers lives on.
“This pope market is the ultimate Holiday Inn Express market,” posted a trader in Kalshi’s community discord.
The trader is referring to the short lifespan of the event. According to forecasts on Manifold (a play-money prediction market), the conclave is expected to begin within the next few days.
The highly secretive process where the Church’s top cardinals are sequestered inside the Vatican to deliberate and vote, can last anywhere from a few hours to several months, depending on how quickly a two-thirds majority vote is reached.
Another peculiarity is that the traders have no polling to turn to, no public endorsements to consider, and in this particular conclave, an electorate that is vastly different than the last time the event took place, in 2013.
As one Kalshi representative put it:
“The fact that the conclave is so secretive is precisely why prediction markets are so important in this scenario. With such little credible information to go on, the mechanism of the market provides a signal through the noise, allowing anyone to see in an instant who the likely contenders are.”
In any case, traders who believe they have an edge in the market won’t have to wait long to see their returns.
Who will be the next Pope?
Already, certain candidates have emerged as early favorites. Kalshi traders are giving Cardinal Pietro Parolin, the Vatican’s Secretary of State, a 35% chance of being the next pope, followed by Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (22%), who would be the first Asian pope.
Prices on Kalshi will continue to adjust in real time as traders react to rumors, leaks, and even the occasional puff of smoke.
Prediction markets notched a win to their belt in 2024, when they correctly forecasted Donald Trump as the favorite to win the U.S. presidential election. Will they reign victorious again with the papacy?
