New JFK Files Spark Hope for Epstein Document Release

Prediction markets briefly saw a 15% boost in odds, but traders remain skeptical

New JFK Files Spark Hope for Epstein Document Release

RELATED POSTS

After Donald Trump signed a Jan. 23 executive order declassifying new JFK, RFK, and MLK assassination files, prediction markets indicated a 15% increase in the likelihood of a similar release of Jeffery Epstein files.

CFTC-regulated prediction market Kalshi gave Trump a 40% chance of releasing new documents related to Epstein by May 1, 2025. The Epstein documents would have to be “related to or [discuss] Jeffrey Epstein’s connections, or associates.”

After the initial bump in odds, the forecast fell back to 24% on Jan. 28, as Trump took no further action on declassified files or anything related to Epstein’s crimes. 

However, this market only requires Trump to release new Epstein files within his first 100 days. Prediction market prices doubt that Trump will release new files in that timeframe. 

They have also priced in the possibility that Trump would be implicated in new documents. In November 2024, journalist Michael Wolff released recordings of his interviews with Epstein in 2017 which included explanations of his long relationship with Trump. New files could be political liabilities even if these files were priorities for Trump. 

Ongoing disbelief in the scale of Epstein’s crimes

Epstein embodied many of the worst traits that populists associate with wealthy and secretive elites. He used his wealth to traffic underage girls as he secretly brought visitors to his island.

His actions mirror the central claims of the 2017 Q-Anon conspiracy, a belief that Hollywood celebrities compose a Satanic pedophile cult that Trump is waging war against. After just over a month in prison, Epstein killed himself in his prison cell in August 2019. The scale of his crimes and his ability to kill himself in what should have been a monitored cell inflamed conspiracy theories and increased interest in his case.   

Epstein’s full network remains unknown. A January 2024 release of documents revealed new details about how Epstein and his accomplice, Ghislaine Maxwell, recruited young girls for their sex trafficking ring. Those documents came from a 2015 lawsuit brought by one of Epstein’s alleged victims. 

Prediction market traders reflect skepticism that Trump will disclose new documents, in part because of the quick market deadline. It’s also unclear which documents could be made public—and whether he would want to if given the chance. 

Buy JNews
ADVERTISEMENT

Join the

Prediction News Community

Featuring prediction market
analysis, data insights
plus
comprehensive industry reporting

Prediction Platforms

Who will win the 2024
US Presidential Election?

Loading..

Loading..

Loading..

Loading..

Loading..