With over 300 million subscribers, Netflix continues to be the streaming platform with the highest number of subscribers. Every day, millions flock to Netflix to watch their favorite shows and projects.
Their expansive libraries and consistent stream of new projects keep their weekly top leaderboards in constant flux. Of course, where there are many possible unknown outcomes, traders will bet on them.
Top prediction platforms have created weekly markets where users can bet on the most popular films and shows on Netflix. On Kalshi specifically, they are the United States leaderboards. But how does Netflix rank these movies?
It’s all based on their definition of “views.” This is calculated by dividing the total viewing time by the project’s runtime.
This gives shorter content an advantage: a season with six 30-minute episodes will rank higher than a season with nine hour-long episodes if both have the same total viewing time.
With that knowledge, let’s take a look at which projects are most likely to be at the top of the chart released on March 25, 2025.
Top US Netflix movie this week?
The competition in this category will likely be between three projects.
The Electric State
Release Date: Last week – March 14, 2025
Runtime: 128 minutes
Based on Simon Stålenhag’s novel of the same name, The Electric State is a sci-fi action adventure film led by Millie Bobby Brown and Chris Pratt. The film is also directed by the Russo Brothers, who are known for directing major Marvel movies including the massive blockbuster, Avengers: Endgame.
Among critics The Electric State performed terribly, scoring an 18% Rotten score with a critical consensus calling the movie “a giant automaton [with] plenty of hardware…but none of the spark that’d make it come to life.” But a bad critical reception has never stopped a film from performing well on Netflix, scoring the top position on the chart published on March 18, 2025.
Den of Thieves 2: Pantera
Release Date: Thursday
Runtime: 144 minutes
Den of Thieves 2: Pantera is an action film with co-stars Gerard Butler and O’Shea Jackson Jr returning for the sequel. The film is a surprising addition to Netflix given it was released in theaters only about two months ago – Jan. 10, 2025.
This film was better received on Rotten Tomatoes with a Fresh score of 63%. Given last week’s top film was also an action film, the competition will likely be mostly between this film and The Electric State. However, Den of Thieves 2: Pantera has the advantage of being a recent theatrical release so there’s a kind of excitement added to that, in addition to being a newer addition to Netflix. Importantly, The Electric State has a slightly shorter run time.
The Outrun
Release Date: Tuesday
Runtime: 118 minutes
Unlike the previous two films which are for action-film lovers, this film is a critical darling. It premiered at the Sundance Film Festival and received multiple awards on the film festival circuit.
It’s a 2024 film and the oldest of the three, however, it is the only film to have any kind of Oscar buzz. This will attract a different kind of audience, which may be smaller than the broad appeal action movies have. It was critically acclaimed with a Certified Fresh score of 82%.
This film will unlikely to be able to overcome popular action movies on the charts. The real competition will be between The Electric State and Den of Thieves 2: Pantera. Another film that has been at the top of the charts for weeks has been Despicable Me 4, which also shouldn’t be counted out.
Top US Netflix show this week?
Unlike the movie leaderboard, the show category has more contenders who may be likely to overtake the leaderboard.
Adolescence
Release Date: Last week – March 13, 2025
Runtime: 4 Episodes — 51-65 minutes each
A new, unexpected hit is Netflix’s Adolescence. The British crime series is a short four-episode watch and has been a smash with critics too. The series has a 98% Rotten Tomatoes score as of March 17.
With the help of the show’s short season, the series has the advantage of being able to stay on top if the new additions have longer seasons. With the current news and hype around the show, it may be strong enough to maintain its peak position. It was at the top of the March 18 and 19 charts.
The Residence
Release Date: Thursday
Runtime: 8 episodes — predicted to be 60 minutes each
The Residence is the most likely competitor of all new releases on Netflix this week. The mystery drama is the latest series produced by Shonda Rhimes under her Shondaland production company.
Rhimes has produced three shows for Netflix thus far – Bridgerton, Queen Charlotte: A Bridgerton Story, and Inventing Anna. All three shows made it to the No. 1 spot on the Netflix charts.
With Uzo Aduba leading the cast, the show will compete with Adolescence, which has a significantly shorter run time. It will likely be a tight race between the two. Moreover, the show is coming out on Thursday, so it will have less time to gather run time as opposed to Adolescence.
The Walking Dead: Dead City
Release Date: Wednesday
Runtime: 6 episodes — 40-50 minutes each
The Walking Dead: Dead City is the first sequel series to the original show The Walking Dead but the sixth show in the franchise. While the show has been massively popular on Netflix in the past, there may be some fatigue with the franchise.
The advantage it has over The Residence is a shorter season and earlier release date. However, the show is not a new original release which may put the other two projects in a more advantageous position.
Wolf King
Release Date: Thursday
Runtime: 13 episodes — about 22 minutes each
Wolf King is a new Netflix Original animated series based on Curtis Jobling’s Wereworld novels. While not clear what demographic the series is aimed at, it will likely appeal to young teens and fans of the original novels.
While this is a strong demographic for Netflix, it may not be able to overcome the hype surrounding Adolescence and the name recognition of The Residence and The Walking Dead: Dead City.
With all these new releases competing for attention, Netflix’s top charts are likely to see some big changes this week. Viewers have plenty of options to choose from, while traders have plenty to consider before placing their bets on which title will reach number one.
