From Adolescence to You, Netflix has been behind some of the biggest hits of 2025 so far. Thanks to their multibillion-dollar budget, Netflix can produce many projects, which increases the chance of finding a hit. On the top prediction market, Kalshi, customers are weekly trading on what Netflix’s top movie and show will be.
With the new month of May, a large slate of projects is usually added on the first of every month. Typically, a large portion of the new additions are newly licensed films, such as The Equalizer 2 or the Twilight films. However, they also have a big week for original TV shows.
When the market resolves once Netflix releases the charts on Tuesday, remember that the ranks are determined by dividing the total viewing hours by the project’s runtime.
Here are the projects to look out for this month.
What happened last week in TV (Top 10 shows)
- Ransom Canyon (Season 1)
- You (Season 5)
- Raw: 2025 – April 21, 2025
- Ms. Rachel (Season 1)
- Black Mirror (Season 7)
- Young Sheldon (Season 7)
- Love on the Spectrum (Season 3)
- Race For The Crown (Season 1)
- The Residence (Season 1)
- A Tragedy Foretold: Flight 3054 (Season 1)
Top US Netflix TV show this week?
While most Kalshi traders predicted You to take the top spot at more than an 80% chance, Ransom Canyon was able to hold onto it for its second week in the position.
You and Ransom Canyon will likely continue to put up a strong fight throughout the week. The week will also see four likely strong contenders: The Four Seasons, Asterix & Obelix: The Big Fight, The Eternaut, and Bad Boy.
The Four Seasons
- Release Date: Thursday, May 1, 2025
- Runtime: 8 episodes — about 30 minutes each
Based on the 1981 film of the same name, Netflix’s The Four Seasons is created by Tina Fey, Lang Fisher, and Tracey Wigfield. The film boasts an impressive cast including Steve Carell, Colman Domingo, and Will Forte. Fey will also star in the series.
With such a stacked comedy cast, the series is highly anticipated. It is expected to perform well and may be a strong contender for the No. 1 position. Also, with eight episodes, each about 30 minutes long, they have a significant runtime advantage over Ransom Canyon and You.
Asterix & Obelix: The Big Fight
- Release Date: Wednesday, April 30, 2025
- Runtime: 5 episodes — about 25-40 minutes
Asterix & Obelix: The Big Fight is based on the French comic series Asterix, specifically the seventh story in the series. The series is well-known and popular in France and Belgium.
However, given that most of its fame comes from abroad, this may result in fewer views in the United States. With the proper marketing to young audiences, the film can become a new favorite among children.
The Eternaut
- Release Date: Wednesday, April 30, 2025
- Runtime: 6 episodes — about 60-minute episodes
The Eternaut is based on an Argentine sci-fi comic from the 1950s by Héctor Germán Oesterheld and art by Francisco Solano López. The film stars the famous Argentine actor Ricardo Darín, who is likely familiar to Argentine viewers.
Similar to Asterix, the appeal is primarily international and may not draw audiences in the U.S. as well as projects like The Four Seasons. However, past international projects have performed well, like Germany’s Netflix sci-fi series Dark. Capturing this audience would be a great boost for The Eternaut.
Bad Boy
- Release Date: Friday, May 2, 2025
- Runtime: 8 episodes — N/A
After the success of Adolescence, many wonder if Bad Boy will be just as successful. Also following a young boy taken into a juvenile detention center, this Israeli series is created by the same trio of creators behind the original Israeli version of Euphoria.
While Adolescence can help boost the show’s performance, it can also prevent people from wanting to watch something similar. And given the divisiveness of Israel currently in the U.S., audiences may be reluctant to watch Bad Boy.
What happened last week in movies (Top 10 movies)
- Havoc
- iHostage
- American Sniper
- A Dog’s Way Home
- Despicable Me 4
- Oklahoma City Bombing: American Terror
- Murder at Yellowstone City
- The Life List
- Bullet Train Explosion
- The Croods
Top US Netflix movie this week?
Tom Hardy’s Havoc is going to be a difficult film to remove from the top spot. However, there is the Netflix Original film Exterritorial and a large new slate of licensed films that may win over American audiences.
Exterritorial (2025)
- Release Date: Wednesday, April 30, 2025
- Runtime: 109 minutes
Exterritorial is a German-language film created through the partnership between Netflix and Constantin Film. In 2023, Constantin Film released Dear Child on Netflix, which reached the Top 10 in over 90 countries.
This new thriller may be a good challenger to Havoc, but it will be tough to compete with well-known American actors like Hardy and Denzel Washington in The Equalizer 2.
The Equalizer 2 (2018)
- Release Date: Thursday, May 1, 2025
- Runtime: 121 minutes
When the first movie and the third film in The Equalizer series were added to Netflix, they both appeared in Netflix’s Top 10 charts. This spells a good chance for The Equalizer 2. However, Havoc and Exterritorial both have the advantage of being newer films.
Twilight Saga (2008-2012)
- Release Date: Thursday, May 1, 2025
- Runtime: Five separate films
In 2021, when all five Twilight films were added to Netflix, they all occupied the top 5 spots on the platform. Twilight continues to be massively popular and may emerge as dominant contenders on the Netflix charts this week.
