Trump has threatened several Democratic cities with the National Guard, but a few of them seem to have more time to fend off the president.
Prediction market Kalshi gives Chicago (53%), New York City (36%), and Baltimore (30%) the highest chances of having National Guard troops sent their way. All three are prominent Democratic cities that Trump has targeted as part of his “crackdown” on crime.
The next day, Trump signed an executive order creating “specialized units” of the National Guard to assist in cracking down on crime in Washington, D.C. Odds of a Chicago National Guard deployment fell to about 48% before settling around 55% that evening.
D.C. could get its police control back this year
Trump took control of the D.C. police after he declared a “crime emergency” and deployed the National Guard to the streets. According to the 1973 Home Rule Act, Trump can use the police for his “federal” purposes for up to 30 days without a vote from Congress. From Trump’s Aug. 11 executive order, he could return local police authority to the city about two-and-a-half weeks before the market settles.
But a Republican Congress could authorize an extension, especially if the issue is playing well in their home districts. In an Ipsos/Reuters poll, 76% of Republicans and 8% of Democrats supported federal control over the D.C. police.
As the nation’s capitol waits to see whether it gets control of its police back, another Democratic city has taken the Trump administration to court over its National Guard deployment.
Los Angeles the likely winner of its lawsuit
Trump ordered California’s National Guard into Los Angeles amid peaceful protests over immigration raids in early June. The troops were reportedly bored, and Trump began a partial withdrawal in the following weeks.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom sued the Trump administration, alleging that the president had overstepped his boundaries and that the final authority over California’s National Guard rested with the state governor, not the U.S. president. Newsom brought the lawsuit against Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in June, shortly after Trump took control of the state’s National Guard troops.
However, the ruling must come down before the end of the year. If no decision is made by Jan. 1, 2026, then the market will resolve to ‘No.’ Traders could be betting on a drawn out process as much as a California victory.
