Elon Musk is nearly three times as likely to leave the Trump administration by July, after Tuesday’s election results in Wisconsin and Florida. Tuesday’s elections have made Elon Musk over 170% more likely to leave the Trump administration by July.
Florida held two special elections to fill two House seats, and Wisconsin held an election for its state Supreme Court.
Both Florida Republicans, Jimmy Patronis and Randy Fine, won their districts by narrower margins than expected. Meanwhile, Judge Susan Crawford, a liberal backed by national Democrats, secured Wisconsin’s state Supreme Court seat, winning by eight points with 90% of the votes reported. Crawford prevailed despite $25 million spent by Musk to defeat her.
On Wednesday morning, crypto prediction market platform Polymarket traders gave Musk a 63% chance of leaving the Trump administration by July, up from 23% on Monday morning.
Musk’s heavy involvement in Wisconsin’s race and the increasing unpopularity of DOGE’s budget cuts have taken a toll on Republican electoral fortunes.
DOGE, Musk become political liability
Former FiveThirtyEight analyst G. Elliott Morris called Musk Tuesday night’s “big loser.” In a Substack post, he highlighted data from 49 polls on Trump’s executive actions and policy proposals, showing that those related to DOGE and government efficiency had a net approval rating of -9. Only 39% of respondents approved, while 48% disapproved.
Even in the districts they won, Republicans face warning signs. Patronis (FL-1) won by 15 points—down from Matt Gaetz’s 32-point margin in 2024. As for Fine (FL-6), he won by 19 fewer points than his predecessor, Mike Waltz.
The improved Democratic margins are early clues about how voters are responding to Trump’s agenda. Tariffs are increasing consumer prices, recession fears are rising, and Musk’s DOGE cuts have put popular programs like Social Security at risk.
Prediction markets around elections are eye-catching, but actual results reshape the political landscape. With these elections resolved, the markets now turn to electoral consequences, such as the date that Musk leaves DOGE by or when the House will pass a reconciliation bill.
