Measles Outbreak Spreads Across U.S.—How Bad Will It Get?

Rural Texas is hit hard, and cases are popping up nationwide. Meanwhile, prediction markets adjust this year's forecast

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Measles is spreading.

It’s a viscous, highly contagious disease — albeit one that can be prevented with vaccines, according to the Centers for Disease control. 

Some people mistake it for a rash that might dissipate in a few days, but that’s not the case, and it’s particularly harmful to children. 

It’s serious, too. Measles can lead to complications like pneumonia, brain swelling (encephalitis), and even death, especially in young kids and immunocompromised people. The best defense? Vaccination. The MMR (measles, mumps, rubella) shot is incredibly effective at keeping this nasty virus at bay.

Rural Texas in particular has been hard hit. More than 200 cases have been reported, according to the CDC and Texas Department of State Health Services. Over a dozen needed to be hospitalized, and at least one person has died, while another death is under investigation. 

It’s officially been called an outbreak, at least in Texas.

Other cases have popped up in: Alaska, California, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York City, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island,and Washington.

Concerns about the spread — with the most recent case confirmed in Maryland — have caused prediction markets to ponder what the impact will be.

According to Kalshi—prediction market where users trade real money on the likelihood of real-world events—there’s speculation that the number of infections could hit or top 1,500 cases, as well as concern that this could be the next pandemic the world faces, especially since some of the people who’ve caught it have traveled internationally. 

There is, of course, also the question of whether or not Robert F. Kennedy Jr., recently appointed to head Health and Human Services and notoriously skeptical of vaccines, will recommend vaccines this year — including which vaccines.

If you’re concerned if you or your child may have contracted the virus, here’s what the CDC says to look out for:

Measles symptoms appear 7 to 14 days after contact with the virus.

Common measles symptoms include:

  • High fever (may spike to more than 104° F)
  • Cough
  • Runny nose (coryza)
  • Red, watery eyes (conjunctivitis)
  • Rash
  • Complications

The CDC says measles “can cause serious health complications, especially in children younger than 5 years of age. Common complications are ear infections and diarrhea. Serious complications include pneumonia and encephalitis.”

Humanity survived one epidemic — hopefully we can dodge this one.

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