Going into the NCAA men’s basketball Final Four, Kalshi’s $330 million March Madness trading volume is triumphing amid battles over the market’s legality.
On March 17, CFTC-regulated prediction market platform Kalshi partnered with Robinhood to offer March Madness contracts to Robinhood’s users. Kalshi began offering markets on single-game qualifiers starting the week before the tournament and has had markets for every qualifier leading up to the Final Four, and the championship market.
Recent moves helping Kalshi overshadow Polymarket
As of Friday, ahead of the Final Four (Saturday) and NCAA Championship on Monday, Kalshi’s March Madness market is rivaling its best-ever $400 million presidential election market. March Madness has already blown Kalshi’s $27 million Super Bowl market out of the water. However, Robinhood paused trading on the Super Bowl at the CFTC’s request the day after announcing the markets, and Kalshi only launched its Super Bowl market less than three weeks before the event.
Getting its March Madness contracts listed on Robinhood has given Kalshi access to about 25 million new customers. Kalshi’s March Madness market is cumulative, so trade volume includes wagers on every game offered and the championship. Even with that stipulation, Kalshi is outpacing crypto prediction market platform Polymarket.
Polymarket’s NCAA men’s championship market has about $20 million in trade volume, and markets on individual games have ranged from about $100,000 to $2 million each. Kalshi’s expansion into popular sports events and its embrace of CFTC regulation is helping it outpace its largest competitor in the prediction market industry.
For March Madness liquidity, Kalshi is even out-competing some companies in the gambling industry.
Kalshi rivals most sportsbooks, too
With about two and a half weeks of live Super Bowl contracts, Kalshi got more trade volume than major sportsbook brands except for the country’s three largest: DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM. However, Kalshi is available in all 50 states while sportsbooks are available in 32 states and the District of Columbia. Most sportsbook operators are in even fewer markets. But unlike sportsbooks, Kalshi only offers wagers on game outcomes, so its volume remains impressive.
March Madness could be the event that pushes Kalshi to one of the country’s largest sports platforms. The American Gaming Association (AGA) estimated that upwards of $3.1 billion would be bet on March Madness (men’s and women’s tournaments) at regulated sportsbooks in 2025. Given that number, Kalshi’s total March Madness liquidity could easily exceed that of the largest U.S. sportsbook operator.
Very interesting chart - Kalshi had more volume on the Super Bowl than standard books like Caesar and ESPN.
— ROI Guy (@roiguy123) February 13, 2025
Looks like they’re really trying to be a player in the sports betting space. pic.twitter.com/fyQiXtrQ0E
Regulated sports betting states attempting to slow Kalshi’s roll
However, the gaming industry has taken notice of its new competition. Four states have issued cease-and-desist letters to Kalshi to get sports contracts out of their states. Kalshi has sued in Nevada and New Jersey, arguing that its regulator, the Commodity Futures and Trading Commission (CFTC) is the only authority that can allow or prohibit event contracts. Lawsuits against Ohio and Illinois are likely to follow.
Meanwhile, some regulated sportsbooks are also eyeing prediction markets as a potential area of expansion. One of the reasons DraftKings has applied to offer a prediction market product is how well-suited prediction markets are to live trading.
In January 2025, data company Optimove launched a service that texted messages to sports bettors during live events. The company stated in a blog post that “live bettors spend 87% more than pre-match bettors.” Live betting is a big business, and prediction markets don’t have to work with separate micro-betting companies to draw customers in, as sportsbooks do.
Kalshi’s March Madness trade volume could reach new heights during the championship game as traders flock to the market while the final plays out. Enough new customers and action could make March Madness Kalshi’s second $400 million market.
