What to know:
- With over $15,000 wagered, Kalshi markets predict Last Breath will land between 68.5 and 78.8 on Rotten Tomatoes.
- While some films like The Shallows (78%) have been well-received, most underwater survival thrillers in the past decade have struggled with critics.
- While Last Breath is based on a highly rated documentary (93%), director Alex Parkinson’s lack of experience in narrative filmmaking could be a challenge.
The survival thriller film Last Breath is coming to theaters on Feb. 28, 2025. Over $15,000 has been bet on the Rotten Tomatoes score of this film, and Kalshi bettors believe the film will perform fairly well.
With early forecasts on the top prediction market Kalshi placing its score between 68.5 and 78.8, bettors seem optimistic, but history suggests that underwater survival thrillers are often a gamble when it comes to critical reception.
Before placing your own bets, here’s what you need to know about Last Breath.
What is ‘Last Breath’?
Last Breath is a survival thriller film directed by Alex Parkinson and written by Parkinson, Mitchell LaFortune, and David Brooks. This is a narrative feature film remake of the 2019 documentary of the same name written by Parkinson and directed by Richard da Costa and Parkinson.
A heart-pounding film that follows seasoned deep-sea divers as they battle the raging elements to rescue their crewmate trapped hundreds of feet below the ocean's surface. Based on a true story, LAST BREATH is an electrifying story about teamwork, resilience, and a race against time to do the impossible.
The film’s small but star-studded cast includes Woody Harrelson, Simu Liu, Finn Cole, Cliff Curtis, Djimon Hounsou, and Mark Bonnar. Last Breath was shot in 2023 and acquired for distribution by Focus Features in 2024.
Critical reception of aquatic thriller movies
We all know Jaws and the wave of water-based thrillers that followed. With Last Breath set to hit theaters, how have similar films fared with critics in recent years?
Movie | Rotten Tomatoes Score |
Meg 2: The Trench (2023) | 27% |
Underwater (2020) | 48% |
Sea Fever (2019) | 87% |
47 Meters Down: Uncaged (2019) | 45% |
The Meg (2018) | 47% |
Deep Blue Sea 2 (2018) | 0% |
47 Meters Down (2017) | 53% |
Open Water 3: Cage Dive (2017) | 25% |
The Chamber (2016) | 31% |
The Shallows (2016) | 78% |
Underwater and water-related survival thriller films do not have a great track record. In the last 10 years, the films’ scores have ranged from 0% to 85%. Eight out of the 10 examples above scored Rotten scores.
Many of these films had star-studded casts but the big names were not enough to score a strong critical reception. And the director Parkinson doesn’t have a lot of experience.
The documentary this film is based on has a 93% but this will be his first non-documentary film. But he clearly knows the content well and may approach this film in a unique way that would set him apart from other survival thriller filmmakers.
Early reviews of ‘Last Breath’
There aren’t too many reviews available on the film yet but the available ones are positive. ScreenRant’s Liam Crowley raved about the movie and thought it was a “triumphant tale of the human spirit.” Kevin Fenix said the film was a “harrowing & hopeful tale that had me gripping my armrests.”
Thoroughly impressed by #LastBreath. 93 minutes & not a second wasted. Felt sick to my stomach just from setting up the mission alone. Could hear my heartbeat out loud come the second act, cried real tears by the third. What a triumphant tale of the human spirit. pic.twitter.com/eN3BKlHm9z
— Liam (@LiamTCrowley) February 12, 2025
The reality is that the film will only be able to perform well if Parkinson can translate the inspiring story from a documentary to a narrative feature film. If he’s able to successfully take what he learned in the first film and create an effective survival thriller film, it can perform very well. Will it rise above the genre’s past struggles, or will it sink under the genre’s stereotypes?
