Kalshi released 49 new House race markets on Wednesday, arriving at a tumultuous moment for the Republican Party.
Kalshi traders give Democrats a 75% chance of winning the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms. The opposition party often gains seats in the House in off-year elections. Some voters have become critical of the party in the White House, and the midterm electorate is composed of the most engaged voters of the opposition party.
The important races to watch in 2026 are the Republican seats that Democrats have a chance to flip to regain control of the House of Representatives.
Competitive House races on Cook and Kalshi
The Cook Political Report rates eight Republican House Districts as toss-ups. Kalshi put up markets on five of them on Wednesday:
Democrats are favored to take each of these races except for WI-03, although the trading volume is so low that the odds don’t reflect a “true” price. More traders need to settle on a price before it can be considered a consensus forecast.
Each of these races was decided by less than 4% of the vote. Several were within 2%, a much closer margin that a motivated electorate could flip. These won’t be the last competitive House races that Kalshi will list, but they will be among the most important to watch in November 2026.
There’s also a Republican primary that is worth watching heading into the midterms.
Musk vs. Trump in Kentucky
Thomas Massie has criticized Trump for bombing Iranian nuclear facilities and voted against the Big, Beautiful Bill. These positions enraged Trump but earned Elon Musk’s endorsement and campaign contributions.
Massie’s primary could become a proxy fight between the deficit hawks backed by Musk and the MAGA Republicans still loyal to Trump. Musk has promised to fund primary challenges against Republicans who vote for the Big, Beautiful Bill over the expected $3.2 trillion increase to the budget deficit.
Kalshi traders give Musk a 34% chance of creating a new political party in the wake of his public break with Trump. Musk’s concern about the budget deficit and national debt could put forth candidates who not only resist increased spending but also support tax increases on wealthy Americans. Although, whether Muskian candidates approach the budget deficit from both directions won’t be known until Musk begins funding primary challenges.
If Musk’s favored candidates replace the existing slate of Republican candidates, it would disrupt the current projections for the House and Senate. Whether Musk plays into Democratic hands by backing weak or strong Republican candidates remains to be seen, but you can bet that prediction markets will be quickly reacting as the campaigns unfold.
