With sports betting entering its annual summer slowdown season following the NBA Finals, prediction market platform Kalshi is looking to maintain some sports-related trading momentum by promoting markets for the popular Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest, which returns to New York’s Coney Island this Fourth of July.
The hot dog markets were being featured near the top of Kalshi’s sports page, just beneath their Wimbledon winner markets. Kalshi has been promoting these markets, including with an interview feature with last year’s contest winner, Patrick Bertoletti, on its blog.
Kalshi is also promoting the hot dog contest on its Instagram page with a paid-partnership post featuring legendary eater Joey Chestnut, the heavy favorite to win this year’s event.
Chestnut heavy favorite to win 2025 Nathan’s contest
In the promotional post on Instagram, Chestnut says:
“I’ve been making money eating hot dogs for 20 years And now, so can you. This Fourth of July, you can trade on me winning with Kalshi. But, come on, we expect that to happen. So you can go further. Right now on Kalshi, you can trade on how many hot dogs the winner will eat. The market is saying 73; my record is 76. And I’m feeling hungry.”
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Chestnut is indeed heavily favored to win this year’s contest. At Kalshi’s Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest winner market, Chestnut’s odds of winning have fluctuated between around 87% and 92% (where it is as of July 3) since the market opened on June 18. Bertoletti, last year’s winner, has had the second best odds, getting as high as an 11% chance of winning but trading around 7% 24 hours ahead of the competition.
Kalshi Nathan’s markets top $8.5 million in trades
Chestnut, the No. 1 competitive eater in the world according to Major League Eating’s rankings, returns to the Nathan’s stage this year after being deemed ineligible in 2024 due to his brand deal with a plant-based food company. Chestnut has won the Nathan’s contest 16 times since 2007 and holds the record for most hot dogs eaten. He ate 76 dogs in 2021, beating his old record of 75.
As Chestnut mentions in the Instagram ad, Kalshi users can also trade on how many hot dogs the winner will eat at this year’s contest, with markets for various ranges, like “75 or more,” which has a 38% of happening. As of midday July 3, the average forecast is 72.8.
The day before this year’s contest, Kalshi’s Nathan’s winner market has already attracted more than $5.8 million in trading volume, while the market for the number of hot dogs eaten by the winner is over $2.7 million in trades.
The X account @kalshiwhales, which tracks large Kalshi trades, has spotlighted several trades worth thousands of dollars in the two Nathan’s contest markets. The biggest so far has been a $45,000 bet on Chestnut to win, which would return a profit of $5,000 if correct.
A whale just placed a sizzling $45K bet backing Joey Chestnut to win the Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest! 🌭🔥
If they’re right, they’ll win $50K.
— Whale Watch Kalshi (@kalshiwhales) June 28, 2025
Sportsbooks also offer Nathan’s markets in some states
Top sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings are offering a wider range of markets for the Nathan’s contest, but they are only available in Canada and select states in the U.S. due to some state-specific gambling regulations. One such market is over/under total dogs devoured by each contestant.
With Kalshi being a prediction market exchange federally regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, users in all 50 states can trade on Nathan’s Hot Dog Eating Contest markets through the platform.
