Rubio vs. Duffy: Kalshi Cabinet Vote Market Teaches Traders Valuable Lesson

Sharps leverage procedural details—like a temporary vacancy and cloture vote trends

Rubio vs. Duffy: Kalshi Vote Market Teaches Traders Valuable Lesson

RELATED POSTS

On Monday, the Senate’s votes for Sean Duffy, Trump’s nominee for Transportation Secretary, shocked Kalshi’s market on which Trump Cabinet member would receive the most confirmation votes. Duffy’s price surged from 7¢ to 28¢ on Monday night and peaked at almost 37¢ on Tuesday during his confirmation vote.  

On January 20, the Senate confirmed Marco Rubio as Secretary of State by a vote of 99-0. Rubio’s absence left a vacant Senate seat, reducing the total number of senators to 99. When the Senate later confirmed Duffy, all 100 seats were filled, as Rubio resumed his role in the Chamber.  

That additional senator presented an opportunity for savvy traders.

After the unanimous cloture vote on Duffy, Rubio’s price fell from 93¢ to 60¢. Then, Duffy’s confirmation only received 77 votes in the Senate, enough to be called a bipartisan nominee but not enough to overtake Rubio’s position in the market — which returned to 94¢ as Cabinet confirmations proceed.

The market’s price spikes are a lesson in how to pay attention to an event’s details to find edges and money-making opportunities within prediction markets.

The money is in the details

Kalshi’s price on Duffy spiked after Monday’s 97-0 cloture vote, which was unanimous among the senators present. Cloture ends debate on a topic and allows the Senate to proceed with a more formal vote on the issue. In Rubio’s case, the Senate unanimously agreed to hold his confirmation vote without debate, so he didn’t need a cloture vote. 

In contrast, Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem only received 61 votes in her cloture vote and 59 in her confirmation vote. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth got 51 votes for cloture and 50 for confirmation

One Kalshi trader noticed the connection between the cloture and confirmation votes. He also pointed out that a full Senate made it possible for Duffy to get a unanimous vote. After the cloture vote, Rubio was still favored at 70¢, but Duffy’s price roughly quadrupled to about 28¢.

However, Duffy’s confirmation vote was on the same day that Trump froze federal funding. Politico attributed the Democratic ‘no’ votes to protest votes against Trump and a nominee they believed would “go along” with the president rather than challenge him. 

Kalshi traders found an edge by noticing that Duffy’s vote ceiling was one vote higher than Rubio’s and by paying attention to Senate actions that preceded confirmation votes.

Those protest votes lost Duffy the chance to get the most votes of any Trump nominee. Still, a trader who bought Duffy contracts at 7¢ could have made a 300% return on Monday night. Pattern recognition has value even when it doesn’t lead to settlement.  

The one Cabinet nominee who still has an outside chance of receiving 100 votes is Michael Kratsios. Trump’s pick for Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy is trading at about 4¢. His committee vote, which has not been scheduled, will be the first tangible data point to see whether he has a chance at getting ‘Yeas’ from all 100 senators. 

Buy JNews
ADVERTISEMENT

Join the

Prediction News Community

Featuring prediction market
analysis, data insights
plus
comprehensive industry reporting

Prediction Platforms

Who will win the 2024
US Presidential Election?

Loading..

Loading..

Loading..

Loading..

Loading..