What to know:
- Turn friendly debates into a fun competition by using prediction markets to bet on this year’s Oscar winners.
- Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket let you bet on all 23 Oscar categories.
- Surprises happen every year, so check expert predictions, past award trends, and market shifts before making your picks.
The Tonys, the Grammys, and the Emmys – all three of these are the biggest nights for their respective industries. For cinema, the Oscars are the biggest night and the oldest of the four.
It’s a night of the most famous celebrities, glamorous outfits, and extravagant nights, all to celebrate that year’s greatest film releases.
Dating back to 1929, and the first televised ceremony in 1953, film lovers in the United States and around the world wait with anticipation for the major awards ceremony. While the biggest film stars congregate in Los Angeles, friends and families gather at home around the TV.
Many make a party out of it – their very own Oscars watch party. Whether it’s a casual evening of chips and salsa or a luxurious evening with shrimp cocktails, fans love to watch it together.
But now you can make it more exciting. How many times have you argued with your Uncle Jim or friend Julia about what was going to win the Best Picture? Now, you can put your money where your mouth is.
On top prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, you can bet on all 23 Oscar categories. You wouldn’t be alone – millions of dollars have already been bet. On Kalshi’s Best Picture market, over $5 million have been bet alone.
The 97th Academy Awards will be held on March 2, 2025, and you can join in on the betting and make for an exciting time for your friends and/or family. Here’s what you need to know about how to bet on the Oscars.
Get started on Kalshi with a $10 sign-up bonus when you sign up with the promo code PREDICTION!
Can I bet on the Oscars?
You can join other bettors who have already bet millions across Oscars prediction markets. But don’t worry – you can bet as little as on cent. Here’s how it works.
Prediction market platforms are sites where you can bet on the chances of an event occurring. For example, you can bet on a Rotten Tomatoes score of newly released movies.
The movie being really bad worked out for me as well. https://t.co/ZeZsdmms0o pic.twitter.com/Yp0SPABPnB
— Gaeten Dugas (@GaetenD) February 12, 2025
The same can be done for the Oscars. For this year’s ceremony, you can bet on most categories including which film will win the Best Picture. If Anora was being sold for 42 cents a share for “yes,” this means bettors predict she has a 42% chance of winning the category.
If you believe the chances are higher, you can buy as many “yes” shares as you want at 42 cents apiece. If you disagree and believe users are overestimating the film’s chances, you can buy “no” shares at 58 cents in order to lower the overall predicted forecast.
The best part is you can sell your shares early. Say 10 hours before the Oscars are aired, Anora is being sold at 98 cents a share but you bought them at 42 cents. You can sell early and make a profit for each share you bought.
Tips for Oscars betting at your Oscars watch party
Prediction markets can be a serious way to make money but it also could be a fun way to spice up your Oscars watch party. You can send all your friends a link to Kalshi and how to sign up to get started on their Oscar predictions — click here and use the code PREDICTION to get a $10 bonus.
Once you do that, you tell them to make bets (as big or as small as they want), in the 23 Oscar categories. Then at the party, with each category, you can reveal your pick and see who wins. It’s a fun way to bring an activity, some light competition, and community to your Oscars watch party.
But before you go and spend $30 on the “obvious” choice, do your research. So often, bettors are buying shares for seemingly apparent winners but it’s never that clear.
For weeks, Adrien Brody was seen as the clear and obvious front-runner for the Best Actor category. However, a week before the Oscars, Timotheé Chalamet won the SAG Award for Best Actor, which shook the prediction market.
Before the SAG Awards, Chalamet sat at just 19% to win the Oscar. Now? 31% and climbing. Why?
— Prediction News (@PredictionNews_) February 25, 2025
The SAG and Oscar winners have matched 12 of the last 14 years—and Chalamet just took home SAG’s top prize. If history repeats itself, Adrien Brody’s frontrunner status isn’t as secure… pic.twitter.com/tu2X3FPqWs
Things are never as simple as they seem. Do your research and step outside of your friends and family. It’s great to know what Uncle Jim and your friend Julia think, but they can often give you a skewed view of what is actually happening.
Read the predictions from experts in a variety of spaces. Not only the New York Times but also on Twitter, YouTube, TikTok, and so on. These people live in these industries and can provide a unique and informative perspective.
With all that knowledge, you won’t just watch the Oscars — you’ll be ahead of the game, making smarter predictions and maybe even surprising your friends and family at your Oscar watch party.
