Will America tune in? That’s the question on the minds of political bettors as the nation gears up for Inauguration Day. A hefty $330,000 has already been wagered on prediction markets speculating how many people will watch President-elect Donald Trump’s second swearing-in ceremony.
Kalshi, a prediction market platform that recently announced Donald Trump Jr. as an adviser, is allowing users to bet on two key questions: Will more people watch Trump’s second inauguration than his first (30.6 million viewers)? Will the viewership surpass that of President Biden’s (33.8 million)?
For a few reasons, this is not your typical inauguration. Its peculiarities and surprises, including the decision to move the ceremony inside and the fact that it falls on a national holiday, present both uncertainty and opportunity for bettors.
The market, however, is confident that Monday’s inauguration viewership will top both marks.
I can hear Trump now…
It’s going to be the most watched inauguration, believe me—bigger than the first, bigger than Biden’s, maybe bigger than the Super Bowl. People are saying it’ll be tremendous. Everyone’s going to tune in, even the haters and losers.
But will they?
If you were wondering, 73% and 62% implied probability converts to -257 and -163 in American odds. For reference, the Detroit Lions were whopping -535 moneyline favorites at sportsbooks on Saturday before losing 45 to 31 to the Washington Commanders. Anything can happen.
In any case, here’s what you need to know if you’re thinking about getting in on the action.
Second-term inaugurations decline in viewership
Historically, second-term inaugurations receive significantly less viewership than first-term inaugurations. Just look at the table below, which shows the number of TV viewers for each inauguration since Richard Nixon’s in 1968.
| Year | President | TV Viewers (millions) | Winner’s Popular Vote | Opponent’s Popular Vote | Popular Vote Margin |
| 1969 | Richard Nixon | 27 | 31,783,783 | 31,271,839 | 511,944 |
| 1973 | Richard Nixon | 33 | 47,168,710 | 29,173,222 | 17,995,488 |
| 1977 | Jimmy Carter | 34.1 | 40,831,881 | 39,148,634 | 1,683,247 |
| 1981 | Ronald Reagan | 41.8 | 43,903,230 | 35,480,115 | 8,423,115 |
| 1985 | Ronald Reagan | 25.1 | 54,455,472 | 37,577,352 | 16,878,120 |
| 1989 | George H.W. Bush | 23.3 | 48,886,597 | 41,809,476 | 7,077,121 |
| 1993 | Bill Clinton | 29.7 | 44,909,806 | 39,104,550 | 5,805,256 |
| 1997 | Bill Clinton | 21.6 | 47,401,185 | 39,197,469 | 8,203,716 |
| 2001 | George W. Bush | 29 | 50,456,002 | 50,999,897 | -543,895 |
| 2005 | George W. Bush | 15.5 | 62,040,610 | 59,028,444 | 3,012,166 |
| 2009 | Barack Obama | 37.8 | 69,498,516 | 59,948,323 | 9,550,193 |
| 2013 | Barack Obama | 20.6 | 65,915,795 | 60,933,504 | 4,982,291 |
| 2017 | Donald Trump | 30.6 | 62,984,828 | 65,853,514 | -2,868,686 |
| 2021 | Joe Biden | 33.8 | 81,283,501 | 74,223,975 | 7,059,526 |
| 2025 | Donald Trump | TBD | 77,284,118 | 74,999,166 | 2,284,952 |
Note: Television viewership data is sourced from Statista
But this isn’t an ordinary second-term inauguration. Trump’s return to the White House follows a four-year hiatus from office—the hiatus, however, did not keep Trump out of the spotlight. Despite controversies surrounding Trump, and specifically, his role in the January 6 attack on the Capitol, more than 77 million people voted for the Republican presidential candidate on Nov. 5.
That makes Trump the first president since Grover Cleveland to return to the Oval Office after losing a re-election bid. Unfortunately, the advent of the television did not come until 35 years after Cleveland’s 1892 comeback, so we don’t get much help there.
My guess? The unique circumstance negates what would’ve been a predictable dip.
Only 45% of U.S. adults are likely to watch, per survey
That number is down from 60% for Biden’s 2021 inauguration, according to YouGov.
% of U.S. adults saying they are very or somewhat likely to watch...
— YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) January 17, 2025
Trump's 2025 inauguration: 45%
Biden's 2021 inauguration: 60%https://t.co/80ZJAFwtethttps://t.co/q1nxzECUkY pic.twitter.com/decKWXK72y
So, just because a second term is unlikely to be the impetus of decreased viewership does not mean there cannot be other causes for a sub-par turnout.
Politics are as polarizing as ever. It seems plausible that people who voted against Trump are less likely to tune into the inauguration than in 2017.
Watch for holiday bump
On the other hand, more people will be sitting at home as Inauguration Day coincides with MLK Jr. Day. It’s a rare overlap that has only happened twice since MLK Jr. Day was approved as a federal holiday in 1983; both occasions happened to be for second-term inaugurations: in 1997, President Bill Clinton and in 2013 for President Barack Obama.
Bad weather, too
Then there’s the weather: more than 75% of the U.S. is expected to face freezing temperatures this week, in addition to a dose of snow for much of the Northeast, from Maine all the way down to Virginia.
That includes Washington, D.C., where the inauguration ceremony has been moved indoors for the first time in 40 years..
Farther south, people in Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Georgia are under winter storm watches
Does the indoor inauguration make it less enticing to watch? Does it even matter with much of the country off work and bundled up on their couches?
Trump’s ability to command attention, both from loyal supporters and detractors, remains unmatched. He has always been an outlier, and this is undoubtedly an outlier day in American politics.
Whether it all translates to a surge in viewership or reflects a more fractured audience is, fittingly, anyone’s guess.
