Elon Musk is synonymous with different things for different people. First, he was associated with Tesla and SpaceX, then became involved with Twitter/X, and now he’s working with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
After President Trump created the new governmental department, he named Musk as the head (sort of). Trump says Musk is leading the department, but White House court filings claim “Mr. Musk is not the U.S. DOGE Service Administrator.”
Regardless of whether he technically is or isn’t in this position, Trump and Musk have made it clear that the latter is in charge of cutting costs in the federal government. Responses to the cuts have been divisive – praise or backlash, depending on one’s party.
But while he purports to be working 120 hours a week, many question whether the work is being done, given the number of tweets he posts in a week. The Economist compiled and analyzed 38,000 tweets from 2014 to November 2024 – looking at the times he posts – revealing he likely barely sleeps.
DOGE is working 120 hour a week. Our bureaucratic opponents optimistically work 40 hours a week. That is why they are losing so fast. https://t.co/dXtrL5rj1K
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 2, 2025
Has his tweeting gone into overdrive since being made Trump’s advisor? His tweet count is so impressively high that bettors on top prediction markets are predicting how many times he will tweet in a week.
On both Kalshi and Polymarket, there are weekly Elon Musk tweet markets. But how much are people betting, and how many times does Musk actually tweet?
Elon Musk tweet markets on Kalshi and Polymarket
Kalshi’s Musk tweet market is rather new, only beginning on Feb. 15, 2025. So far, nearly $500,000 has been traded in the weekly markets.
On Polymarket, its Elon Tweet markets were launched back in June 2024. The current market is at $3,645,794. If you look at all the Elon Musk tweet prediction markets since the beginning of the year, they have amassed over $60,000,000.
Top holders are betting thousands of dollars on the whims of a billionaire. The risk is high because Musk is notorious for being erratic. But how many times is Musk actually tweeting?
Since Jan. 10, 2025, Musk has tweeted 4,442 times. This includes main feed posts, quote posts, and reposts.
On average, Musk has posted about 555 times a week, with a high of 872 times in the week of Feb. 7-14. Given Musk’s social media habits, it isn’t surprising that both Kalshi and Polymarket bettors are predicting a score of something in the 500s.
On Polymarket, the most popular choices are 500-549 and 550-599, with chances of 39% and 37%, respectively. Meanwhile, Kalshi projects a 559-tweet probability.
Of course, it’s important for traders to remember that Musk can be unpredictable, and these numbers can be erratic. We are close to the end of the week, and he has only posted 502 times as of March 6 at 2:30 pm EST. This would require him to post more than 50 times in the next day.
While this sounds like a large number, Musk has done more than that before. According to X Tracker, on Feb. 24, he posted 159 times, and 158 times on Feb. 22 — a tall task but one that is certainly achievable for the tech mogul-turned-government slasher.
Somehow, Musk continues to shape policy while also dominating social media. Whether he’s cutting government spending or posting memes at 3 AM, the world is watching — and betting — on his every move.
