In recent months, the U.S. has grappled with soaring egg prices, largely due to a severe bird flu outbreak that has devastated poultry throughout the country. Now, consumers may face even higher costs thanks to new tariffs on our northern neighbor.
On Wednesday, President Trump announced a pause on automobile tariffs, reprieving the auto industry from a vast swath of import taxes. Other sectors of the economy weren’t so lucky. Canadian oil tariffs will remain in place, making it more expensive to transport goods and driving up the price of consumer staples like eggs.
Traders on crypto prediction market platform Polymarket forecasted that a dozen eggs would cost between $5.75-$6 in March, and are betting that they’ll eclipse $6 by April. Polymarket will settle the market based on the average egg carton price reported by the Federal Reserve of St. Louis.
Polymarket’s forecast reflects increasing anxiety about the U.S. economy. While Trump has touted tariffs as useful policy tools, he consistently downplays their impact on consumer prices. In reality, tariffs are import taxes that businesses typically pass down the supply chain, ultimately burdening consumers.
Recession fears increase amid trade war
As Trump has opened new fronts in his trade wars, prediction market traders have become increasingly concerned about a recession. Polymarket traders increased their odds of a 2025 recession from 23% to about 36% in the first few days of March. During this time, Trump’s tariffs on Mexico and Canada went into effect, and he declared additional tariffs on China.
On March 5, Harvard economist and former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers posted on X that he had “never seen as irrational a consequential policy put in place by an American administration.” On Feb. 12, he also announced the United States had entered “the riskiest period for inflation policy since the early Biden administration.”
If Summers’ analysis and Polymarkets’ forecasts are correct, then the price of eggs is only the beginning of Americans’ economic concerns.
