Howard Lutnick, Trump’s pick for secretary of the Department of Commerce, could set off a new round of prediction market investment. The Commerce secretary oversees programs that encourage startups in different industries. Lutnick’s pro-crypto policies could lead him to fund prediction markets, which are popular products among crypto companies.
The Commerce secretary is in charge of enforcing trade policy and meeting with other countries to negotiate trade agreements. So, if Trump follows through on his threats to increase tariffs, Lutnick will be the one enforcing them.
On July 27, 2024, Lutnick’s company launched a Bitcoin financing business, allowing customers to receive loans and use Bitcoin as collateral. While Lutnick isn’t directly in charge of setting crypto policy, his position calls for him to encourage business and industry growth in the United States. He’ll be an influential voice as he oversees the crypto industry’s continued growth over the next four years.
Prediction markets to benefit from crypto growth
Prediction markets aren’t limited to the crypto industry. For example, Kalshi and ForecastEx accept deposits and pay withdrawals in dollars.
However, many crypto companies also have prediction markets. Solana is a popular blockchain for building prediction market companies, as Drift B.E.T. has done. Polymarket accepts many cryptocurrency deposits on its platform.
The Department of Commerce has events and programs to encourage different companies to grow or start. In 2024, President Biden’s Commerce secretary announced a series of events to connect export businesses with different markets. Under the Biden administration, the Department of Commerce also offered grants to local businesses.
Lutnick hasn’t announced specific plans to encourage the crypto industry once he’s confirmed as Commerce secretary. What he can offer will depend on the Treasury Secretary’s approach to crypto regulation.
He runs an investment bank, is well-known on Wall Street, and has experience in the crypto industry. Kalshi, a commercial prediction market company, gives Lutnick an 88% chance of being confirmed, but he must be confirmed by the Senate for the contract to settle “yes.” Recess appointments don’t count in the $530,000 market.
Whatever the specifics, Lutnick has a direct stake in the crypto industry’s growth over the next four years and beyond. It would be unsurprising to see him lay the groundwork for a new generation of crypto companies – including prediction market platforms – through the tools available to him as Commerce secretary.