President Donald Trump’s recent claim that over 75 countries are eager to negotiate trade deals has sparked widespread interest and speculation. In response, prediction markets like Kalshi are actively assessing which nations the president is most likely to visit during his first year in office.
On April 9, 2025, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on most tariffs, reducing them to a uniform 10% for countries that refrained from retaliatory measures. China, however, faced an increased tariff rate of 125% due to its retaliatory actions. This strategic move was aimed at encouraging countries to engage in negotiations, with Trump stating that more than 75 nations had reached out to discuss trade terms.
On platforms like Kalshi, traders are actively trading position on which nations Trump will visit during his first year in office. Current probabilities indicate high expectations for visits to Saudi Arabia (91%), the United Kingdom (86%), and Canada (84%). Conversely, the likelihood of trips to China (27%), Denmark (24%), and Vietnam (25%) appear significantly lower.
Nations open to negotiation
Several countries have shown openness to dialogue amidst the tariff disputes:
- Japan is Seeking relief from a 24% tariff, Japan is prioritizing negotiations with the U.S.
- Despite initial setbacks, Vietnam continues discussions, emphasizing its manufacturing ties with U.S. companies.
Following a “great call” between Trump and South Korea‘s acting President Han Duck-soo, officials are optimistic about upcoming talks.
Trump's stance on China
Despite escalating tensions, President Trump has expressed a willingness to negotiate with China. He praised President Xi Jinping as “one of the smartest people in the world” and indicated potential for a favorable deal. However, he also emphasized that the U.S. is not prepared to make a deal unless the significant trade deficit is addressed.
Probability of Trump visiting China is 27% on Kalshi at time of writing. It’s low, but not zero. With Trump being the “wild card,” a miracle could happen.
Prediction markets reflect expectations
The disparities between Trump’s claims and prediction market probabilities shows the complexities of international diplomacy. While many nations express interest in negotiations, the logistics and political considerations of arranging presidential visits suggest a more selective itinerary.
The case for multiple visits
- Visiting multiple countries could strengthen alliances and facilitate trade negotiations.
- Engaging with key trading partners may help resolve tariff disputes and promote U.S. economic interests.
The case against certain visits
- Frequent international travel poses logistical and security challenges.
- Focusing on domestic issues may take precedence over extensive foreign trips.
As the situation evolves, both the administration’s actions and prediction market trends will let traders peek at the future of U.S. international relations and trade negotiations.
