The Republican-led House has the instructions. The budget blueprint is passed. The Freedom Caucus has their pound of flesh. But when will the actual reconciliation bill land?
That’s what traders on the real-money prediction platform Kalshi are trying to forecast. Polymarket also has a version with only closer dates open.
The contract titled “When will the House pass a reconciliation bill?” offers several date ranges, each with market-set odds. As of April 23:
- Before June 1, 2025: 29%
- Before September 1, 2025: 81%
- Before December 25, 2025: 92%
The contract resolves “Yes” if a reconciliation bill—officially beginning with “To provide for reconciliation pursuant to…”—passes the House by the selected date, as verified by the Library of Congress.
This reconciliation bill is the legislative freight train carrying the GOP’s $4 trillion+ tax package, deep Medicaid reforms, fossil fuel incentives, border security funding, and a potential debt ceiling hike.
Passing it unlocks Trump’s biggest campaign promises ahead of 2026, and avoids default.
But to get there, Speaker Mike Johnson must balance the far-right’s demands for massive spending cuts against moderates in swing districts warning against gutting Medicaid. It’s a tightrope with no safety net.
How It Works: Reconciliation 101
Reconciliation bills allow budget-related legislation to pass the Senate with just 51 votes, avoiding the filibuster. But they’re procedurally complex:
- Budget resolution first (done—barely, at 216-214).
- Committees receive instructions for savings and spending targets.
- Committees “mark up” legislation meeting those targets.
- House votes on the combined package.
- Senate applies Byrd Rule, killing any provisions not tied to budgetary effects.
In this case, 11 House committees are already preparing draft language, with GOP leaders saying the full vote could happen before Memorial Day. Kalshi traders are skeptical.
The case for “Before June” (24%)
- Speaker Mike Johnson says he wants the bill on Trump’s desk by Memorial Day.
- “We have bills drafted. Most have already been scored,” Johnson said after last week’s budget vote.
- Senate Majority Whip John Thune appeared with Johnson in a rare joint presser, backing a $1.5 trillion savings goal and confirming cooperation.
The case for delay
- Moderate Republicans from Medicaid-reliant districts have warned they’ll block any bill that deeply cuts health benefits. That includes at least 12 GOP swing-district members.
- Freedom Caucus hardliners want deeper cuts and no deficit-increasing tax cuts, period.
- Any reconciliation bill that even hints at raising the debt ceiling beyond $40 trillion could spark revolt from both ends of the party.
- Committees are currently on a two-week recess, setting back markups and slowing floor time.
Even if the groundwork is ready, the politics may not be.
Traders banking on September or December
Kalshi’s highest-volume trades are currently in the “Before September” (81%) and “Before December” (92%) bins. Historically, reconciliation bills, like the 2017 Trump tax cuts, tend to pass in the second half of the year, once factions hash out offsets and the Senate gets its say.
The GOP’s massive budget bill may carry enough power to reshape taxes, welfare, and energy policy for a decade. But with ideological tensions flaring and political deadlines looming, no one, not even House leadership, knows exactly when it will pass.
Except, maybe, the prediction markets.
