Following the cancellation of a planned CFTC roundtable on prediction markets, it appears a conversation is back on the books. The CFTC is now planning a conference call with tribal leaders about prediction markets’ impact on tribal sports betting and gaming products, In Game reported on Tuesday. The call is scheduled for May 29 at 1 p.m. ET.
Between February 2025 and most of April 2025, it was presumed the CFTC would hold a prediction market roundtable on April 30 for many stakeholders concerned about prediction markets’ expansion into subjects like elections and sports. The commission opened a public comment period in preparation, despite eventually (and unexpectedly) canceling the meeting in last-minute fashion.
Many of the letters submitted to the CFTC came from tribal governments. Gaming pulled some of their reservations out of poverty by creating new jobs and generating revenue that was reinvested into local communities. As such, many tribal gaming entities view sports contracts as threats to economic stability. So, Pham has serious concerns to address with tribal leaders.
Quintenz hearing on the horizon, but still far off
Pham may be the commissioner on the call, but clear CFTC policy direction will only come from Trump nominee Brian Quintenz’s confirmation. Jones Day Council David Aron posted on LinkedIn that Quintenz’s confirmation hearing may not take place for at least another month. However, that still leaves room for a June or July confirmation vote in the Senate.
Quintenz is on record defending prediction markets’ rights to offer sports contracts. In 2021, Quintenz argued that ErisX should have been able to offer event contracts on sports outcomes, because events fit the definition of a commodity:
“The statutory definition of a commodity includes ‘…an occurrence, extent of an occurrence, or contingency…that is 1) beyond the control of the relevant parties to the contract…and 2) associated with a financial, commercial, or economic consequence.’...Because of this definition, any contract on the outcome of a future event would be considered a commodity futures contract, and, pursuant to the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), is required to be traded on a registered Designated Contract Market (DCM).”
Based on past statements, Quintenz is unlikely to push to prohibit Kalshi’s sports contracts, or contracts on other topics that could have been considered gaming (and possibly off limits) by previous CFTC chairmen.
Elections, sports, and what else?
Quintenz has criticized the lack of clarity in the Dodd-Frank Act, which introduced the Special Rule listing the event contract categories that the CFTC should conduct public interest reviews on. The Dodd-Frank Act did not define “public interest” or “gaming,” however. While the CFTC considered a rule that would have defined gaming, it did not become finalized.
So, while Quintenz seems content to refrain from conducting public interest reviews on possible gaming contracts, it’s worth wondering what subjects he’ll allow prediction markets to offer event contracts on next. Elections and sports appear to be a given, but the lines he’ll draw on assassination, terrorism, or other controversial topics remain unclear.
