On Tuesday, delegations from the United States and Ukraine met in Saudi Arabia to discuss ceasefire terms. The United States promised to begin sharing intelligence with Ukraine, and Ukraine was open to a 30-day ceasefire contingent on Russian acceptance.
Polymarket’s odds of a 2025 ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine increased by 6% after the talks, moving from 72% to 78%. It’s an indication that American pressure could lead to a ceasefire, even if only temporary.
Tuesday’s talks were also an attempt to repair the damage from Trump’s Oval Office clash with Volodymyr Zelensky. Trump previously accused Zelensky of being a dictator, then, in the aftermath of their meeting in Washington, froze U.S. aid and intelligence sharing the following week.
Ukraine seems increasingly prepared to make large concessions to guarantee American support. Polymarket’s odds of a minerals deal between Ukraine and the United States rose from 58% to 81% after Tuesday’s talks. The talks improved the chances of conciliation between the United States and Ukraine.
A surprising market was unaffected
On the same day as the talks in Saudi Arabia, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt gave a press conference. CFTC-regulated prediction market platform Kalshi offered a mention market on what she would say during the briefing.
She mentioned neither Ukraine nor Russia during the press conference even though odds for both terms were in the 90s.
The absence is less surprising given that her focus was on the new tariffs on Canada and the stock market. The delegation led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio also made its own announcements about the talks between Ukraine and the United States. So, there was less for Leavitt to say about the war in Ukraine than Trump’s trade war. (Although, she did not use the phrase “trade war” in her remarks.)
Prediction market prices don’t move in isolation. What happens in one market can affect another.
