Democratic Representatives Jamie Raskin of Maryland and Andrea Salinas of Oregon introduced the Ban Gambling on Elections Act, a bill that would amend the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) to prohibit political wagering of any kind. The House bill is a companion to the Senate bill introduced by Oregon’s Jeff Merkley.
During the 2024 election, regulated prediction market platforms like Kalshi and ForecastEx offered event contracts, allowing users to make real-money predictions on who would become the next president. Kalshi also offered markets on the Electoral College and popular vote margins of victory, in addition to markets across other federal races and state-by-state outcomes.
Both companies offered their election contracts as regulated derivatives under the CEA, the law that the CFTC cited to block Kalshi from offering its election contracts in 2023 and through most of 2024, before a federal appeals court decision opened the floodgates to election betting in October.
“With distrust in our electoral system at an all-time high, we must crack down on gambling in all U.S. elections,” said Rep. Raskin in a press release. “Our democracy demands reliable and transparent processes to cast ballots and tally results, not a horserace clouded by gambling odds and bets placed. I am proud to go all-in with Congresswoman Salinas and Senator Merkley in calling on Congress to ante up and pass this commonsense legislation.”
The bill has been referred to the Agriculture Committee, which oversees derivatives regulation. The 118th Congress ends on Dec. 19, so this bill can’t be taken back up until the next Congress is seated on Jan. 3, 2025.
Bright future for election betting
Trump’s administration will include influence from Elon Musk, who has touted prediction markets as more accurate than traditional electoral polls. However, some Democrats also favor prediction markets generally and election markets specifically.
In a letter to CFTC Chairman Rostin Behnam, New York Democratic Rep. Ritchie Torres wrote:
I encourage the CFTC to embrace this growth within its regulated markets and to work collaboratively with regulated registrants to facilitate these contracts. Additionally, I encourage the CFTC to weigh the resources that further court challenges would consume, as well as the broader harm that further delays could have on election integrity and consumer protection.
Between the deregulatory agenda of the Trump administration and some Democratic support for regulated election markets, the future of political betting in the U.S. remains bright.