President Donald Trump is infamous for his social media presence. Frequently going on rants, Trump uses social media similar to a diary where he airs out his latest frustrations. To be fair, this isn’t far from what many others use social media for, albeit they aren’t a world leader.
Trump joined Twitter back in May 4, 2009, and was often posting his thoughts on the social media platform. In January 2021, he was suspended on Twitter for fear of “further incitement of violence” after the January 6 attack on the Capitol.
In just under twelve years, Trump had tweeted 57,000 times on his account. When he became president, he used the account to announce cabinet members he fired, criticize other politicians, and share his opinions on various news.
Now, Trump needed a platform, so he created one. On Feb. 21, 2022, he launched Truth Social. Besides being a financially troubled social media platform, Trump has used Truth Social as his primary means of online communication.
Trump has since returned to Twitter, re-launching his account in August 2024. However, he continues to use Truth Social.
With such active usage, traders on top prediction platforms are wagering on how many times Trump posts ‘Truths.’ But what’s the actual frequency of Trump’s weekly posts on Truth Social?
Donald Trump Truth Social markets on Polymarket
Similar to Elon Musk’s Tweet markets, Polymarket users are betting on how many times he posts on Truth Social in a week.
The markets are fairly new, with the first one starting on Feb. 14, 2025. In just four weeks, the market generated nearly $1.7 million in trades.
Since January of this year, he has posted an average of about 130 times a week. His peak was March 7-14 with 263 Truths.
While his numbers aren’t as high as Musk’s Tweet count, it is still impressively high for a President to have time to post this much. Similar to Musk, Trump’s posting is erratic and can depend on the day.
If something occurs that triggers a rant, his number can fly up. For instance, for the week of March 7-14, he went on a rant after all seven of the “Magnificent 7” stocks fell.
The stock market went into free fall, and in just six minutes, Trump posted 25 times. In total, on March 10, he posted 139 times.
This kind of unpredictability makes it difficult to know which bracket to bet on. In the March 7-14 market, the 150+ choice was drastically going up and down.
Its lowest was 3.4%, and its highest was 66.5% before going to 100%. This unreliable posting behavior makes these kinds of bets a hit-or-miss.
You might place a bet that seems like a safe choice, only for Trump to go on a posting spree and shift the odds entirely. But that unpredictability also creates an opportunity — if you catch it early, betting on an unlikely outcome could lead to a big win.
